EXPLAINING RACE CALLS: How AP called the race for Biden

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Published November 9, 2020 3:29 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) Democrat Joe Biden captured the presidency on Saturday when The Associated Press declared him the victor in his native Pennsylvania at 11:25 a.m. EST. That got him the state’s 20 electoral votes, which pushed him over the 270 electoral-vote threshold needed to prevail over President Donald Trump.

Here is an alphabetical state-by-state look at how and why The Associated Press has — or hasn’t — called U.S. states in the 2020 presidential election.

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WHY AP CALLED ALABAMA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Alabama as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of voting statistics confirmed expectations that the state’s longstanding political trend of favoring Republican presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

A Democratic presidential contender hasn’t won Alabama since Jimmy Carter, from neighboring Georgia, did in 1976. Trump carried the state by 28 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP HASN’T CALLED ALASKA

The Associated Press has not declared a winner in Alaska in the race between President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden because the contest is too early to call.

Though Trump had a nearly 30 percentage point lead Thursday with about 50 percent of the vote counted, the state has not yet released its absentee ballot results and says it won’t do so until Nov. 10. That leaves too much of the vote untallied to declare a winner.

Alaska became a state in 1959 and has only swung for a Democrat once: Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Trump won the state by 28 percentage points in 2016.

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A CLOSER LOOK AT ARIZONA

State officials said Friday there are 150,000 votes still to be counted in Arizona, a Western presidential battleground state where Democrat Joe Biden had a .92 percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump, an advantage of about 29,861 votes.

The Associated Press has called the race in Arizona for Democrat Joe Biden. The AP said Thursday it is monitoring the vote count in the state as ballots continued to be tallied.

“The Associated Press continues to watch and analyze vote count results from Arizona as they come in,” said Sally Buzbee, AP’s executive editor. “We will follow the facts in all cases.”

The vast majority of the ballots still being counted are from Maricopa County, the most populous area of the state. The next update from elections officials there is expected around 11 a.m. EST on Saturday.

The Trump campaign says it is confident the president will overtake Biden when all votes in the state are tallied.

The AP called the race in Arizona for Biden at 2:50 a.m. EST Wednesday after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded Trump could not catch up in the ballots left to be counted.

Arizona has a long political history of voting Republican. It’s the home state of Barry Goldwater, a five-term, conservative senator who was the Republican nominee for president in 1964. John McCain, the party’s 2008 presidential nominee, represented the state in Congress from 1983 until his 2018 death.

But changing demographics, including a fast-growing Latino population and a boom of new residents — some fleeing the skyrocketing cost of living in neighboring California — have made the state friendlier to Democrats.

Many of the gains have been driven by the shifting politics of Maricopa County, which is home to Phoenix and its suburbs. Maricopa County accounts for 60% of the state’s vote, and Biden leads there by 3.4 percentage points in votes that have already been tabulated.

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WHY AP CALLED ARKANSAS FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Arkansas as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics confirmed expectations that the state’s longstanding political trends in favor of Republican presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Bill Clinton, a native of Hot Springs and a longtime former governor, was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state in 1996. Trump won Arkansas by nearly 27 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED CALIFORNIA FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of California as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics confirmed expectations that the state’s longstanding political trend in favor of Democratic presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Hillary Clinton beat Trump in California by 30 percentage points in 2016, and a Republican presidential candidate hasn’t carried the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

California is the most populous state in the U.S. and its 55 electoral votes make it the biggest Election Day prize.

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WHY AP CALLED COLORADO FOR JOE BIDEN

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Colorado as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics confirmed expectations that the state’s longstanding political trend of favoring Democratic presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Colorado was a swing state not that long ago. It voted for Republican Bob Dole over President Bill Clinton in 1996, and swung for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. And state government was solidly Republican until about 15 years ago.

But massive growth in Denver and its surrounding areas ushered in a political shift. Employment opportunities, craft beer brewing, legal marijuana and the state’s rugged and snow-capped mountains drew in new residents — as well as their decidedly more liberal politics.

Democrats now control the governor’s office and the Legislature. In addition to Biden winning the state, former Gov. John Hickenlooper also ousted incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday.

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WHY AP CALLED CONNECTICUT FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Connecticut as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Hillary Clinton won Connecticut by over 13 percentage points in 2016. A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t carried the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

WHY AP CALLED DELAWARE FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Delaware as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Biden, who moved to Delaware as a boy and continues to live there, represented the state in the U.S. Senate for more than three decades until he became Barack Obama’s vice president in 2009.

Hillary Clinton won Delaware by over 11 percentage points in 2016. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

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WHY AP CALLED FLORIDA FOR TRUMP:

In Florida, one of 2020′s most crucial battleground states, President Donald Trump’s strength in his recently adopted home state delivered a victory over Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

The Associated Press called the race for Trump at 12:34 a.m. Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

Florida is typically decided on razor-thin margins and Trump carried the state in 2016 by just 1.2 percentage points. It is one of the biggest Election Day prizes, offering 29 electoral votes.

With 96% of the expected vote counted, Trump led Biden by over 375,000 votes. The remaining vote left to be counted in Democratic-leaning areas of the state was not enough to overcome Trump’s lead of about 3 percentage points.

To win, Biden needed to run up massive margins in the three heavily Democratic counties in south Florida. But early returns showed him underperforming in Miami-Dade County.

That’s where Trump and his allies have been branding Democrats as socialists in advertisements for more than a year — a message geared toward south Florida’s Cuban population, many of whom fled the island nation after Fidel Castro’s communist government came to power.

Florida was a must-win for Trump. Without it, his path to the presidency would have drastically narrowed.

He saturated the state with TV advertising and shifted his residency from New York to Palm Beach County, where he owns the Mar-a-Lago Club, which has been billed as the “Winter White House.”

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WHY GEORGIA IS TOO EARLY TO CALL:

A razor-thin margin and ongoing vote count are what’s making the Georgia contest between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden too early to call.

Votes are still being counted across the state, though many from counties where Biden was in the lead.

Biden inched past the incumbent in the tally Friday and by early that evening was leading by 4,020 votes of nearly 5 million ballots cast -- a lead of about 0.08 percentage points. Under Georgia state law, a candidate can request a recount if the margin is within 0.5 percentage points.

The Georgia Secretary of State’s office said Friday morning that fewer than 8,200 absentee ballots remained to be tallied and 8,900 ballots sent to military and overseas voters had yet to be returned. They must be received by 5 p.m. Friday in order to be counted. It was unclear how many ballots remained to be counted Friday evening.

Gabriel Sterling, an official in the secretary of state’s office, said a recount is “more than likely, and the people will see that the outcome will stay essentially the same.”

Electoral research conducted by the AP found there have been at least 31 statewide recounts since 2000. Three of those changed the outcome of the election. The initial margins in those races were 137 votes, 215 votes and 261 votes.

Among all 31 recounts, the largest shift in results was 0.1%, in the 2006 race for Vermont’s Auditor of Accounts. This was a low turnout election in which the initial results had one candidate winning by 137 votes. The candidate eventually lost by 102 votes, for a swing of 239 votes.

Georgia is a must-win state for Trump, who has a narrower path to victory than Biden. Trump prematurely declared he was winning it early Wednesday morning.

Georgia has long been a Republican stronghold. Voters there haven’t swung for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump beat Hillary Clinton there by 5 percentage points in 2016. And the state’s government is dominated by the GOP.

But the party’s grip has loosened. As older, white, Republican-leaning voters die, they are being replaced by a younger and more racially diverse cast of people, many of whom moved to the booming Atlanta area from other states — and took their politics with them.

Overall, demographic trends show that the state’s electorate is becoming younger and more diverse each year. Like other metro areas, Atlanta’s suburbs have also moved away from Republicans. In 2016, Hillary Clinton flipped both Cobb and Gwinnett counties, where Biden is currently leading.

In 2018, Democrat Stacey Abrams galvanized Black voters in her bid to become the country’s first African American woman to lead a state, a campaign she narrowly lost.

Many political analysts say it’s not a question of if but rather when Georgia becomes a swing state. That much was clear in the closing weeks of the campaign as Biden; his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris; and former President Barack Obama barnstormed the state. Trump, too, visited the state to play defense.

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WHY AP CALLED HAWAII FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Hawaii as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Hawaii since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump lost Hawaii by 32 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED IDAHO FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner in Idaho when polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from the election concluding Tuesday.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Idaho. Trump carried the state by over 31 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED ILLINOIS FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Illinois as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Illinois has long been a Democratic stronghold and hasn’t swung for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Hillary Clinton carried the state by 17 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED INDIANA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Indiana at 8:48 p.m. EST, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 55% of the expected vote counted, Trump led Biden by roughly 22 percentage points.

Those results matched data from AP VoteCast. The survey found Trump with a substantial lead in the state. VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Trump’s Indiana win is no surprise. He carried the state by 19 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. The GOP holds all statewide offices and both Senate seats. And it’s the home state of Vice President Mike Pence, who was Indiana’s governor until Trump picked him to join the GOP ticket in 2016.

Other than 2008, when Barack Obama carved out a narrow win, Indiana hasn’t favored a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

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WHY AP CALLED IOWA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Iowa at 12:16 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 95% of the expected vote counted, Trump led Biden by roughly 8.3 percentage points — or about 128,000 votes out of almost 1.6 million ballots counted.

Those results matched data from AP VoteCast. The survey found Trump had a substantial lead in the state. VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Iowa was once a pivotal swing state that went for Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 and twice elected Barack Obama.

But over the past decade it has trended increasingly Republican.

The state is home to the greatest number of counties — 31 — that went for Trump in 2016 after voting for Obama. State government is dominated by the GOP. And Trump won the state by 9.5 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

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WHY THE AP CALLED KANSAS FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Kansas at 9:45 p.m. EST, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 77% of the expected vote counted, Trump led Biden by nearly 7 percentage points.

The state hasn’t a swung for Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, when Kansan Bob Dole was the Republican nominee. Trump won the state by 20 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED KENTUCKY FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Kentucky as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Bill Clinton was the last Democratic presidential contender to win Kentucky in 1996. Trump won the state in 2016 by nearly 30 points.

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WHY AP CALLED LOUISIANA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Louisiana as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics confirmed the state’s longstanding political trends in favor of Republican presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Bill Clinton was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state in 1996. Trump carried Louisiana by over 19 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED MAINE FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner in Maine at 2:36 a.m. Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow President Donald Trump to catch up.

With 85% of the expected vote counted, Biden led Trump by roughly 10 percentage points. The vote left to be counted in Republican-leaning areas was not enough for Trump to catch up to Biden.

Maine is one of two states that does not use a “winner take all” approach toward awarding electors. Two electors are given to the winner of the statewide vote, while Maine’s two congressional districts each award one elector to the top vote-getter in the district.

Biden won the statewide vote, as well as Maine’s 1st congressional district. The AP called Maine’s 2nd congressional district for Trump on Wednesday afternoon.

Maine has not voted for a Republican presidential contender since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in the state by 3 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED MARYLAND FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Maryland as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Maryland since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Democrat Hillary Clinton carried the state by over 26 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED MASSACHUSETTS FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Massachusetts as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Hillary Clinton carried the state by over 27 percentage points in 2016, and a Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Massachusetts since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

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WHY AP CALLED MICHIGAN FOR BIDEN:

Democrat Joe Biden has won the electoral battleground of Michigan, the third state that President Donald Trump carried in 2016 that the former vice president has flipped. The Biden victory narrows Trump’s path to re-election.

The Associated Press declared Biden the winner of the state at 5:56 p.m. EST Wednesday after conducting an analysis of votes and remaining ballots left to be counted. It showed there were not enough votes left in Republican-leaning areas for Trump to catch Biden’s lead.

Biden had a 70,000-vote lead on Wednesday evening, a margin over Trump of about 1.3 percentage points. The ballots that remained to be counted were from overwhelmingly Democratic areas: Wayne County, which is home to Detroit; the city of Grand Rapids, Michigan’s second largest city; Genesee County; and Kalamazoo.

Michigan is among a handful of battleground states where Trump prematurely claimed early Wednesday that he was “winning” the contest with Biden. Both are locked in a tight race for the 270 electors needed to win the presidency, though Trump’s path is narrowing.

“We’re winning Michigan by — I’ll tell you, I looked at the numbers,” Trump said during an appearance at the White House, where he promised to contest the election before the Supreme Court.

Later in the day, Trump tweeted that he had would “hereby claim the State of Michigan” for “Electoral Vote purposes” despite the fact that Biden had jumped out to a lead.

Michigan is part of what Democrats long referred to as their “blue wall” — a trifecta of states that also includes Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — which served as a bulwark in presidential elections.

In 2016, a combined total of about 80,000 voters spread across those states narrowly handed Trump the presidency. He carried each state by less than a percentage point.

With Biden winning both Michigan and Wisconsin, all eyes are not on Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden had a lead Wednesday evening in Nevada while Trump was leading in Pennsylvania, though there were still about 1 million votes left to count in the state, many of which were mail ballots.

Voters who cast mail ballots have favored Biden. That’s likely because Trump spent months claiming without proof that voting by mail would lead to widespread voter fraud.

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WHY AP CALLED MINNESOTA FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Joe Biden the winner of Minnesota at 11:55 p.m. EST Tuesday, after an analysis of ballots statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow President Trump to catch up.

With 85% of the expected vote counted, Biden led Trump by roughly 4 percentage points — or about 190,000 votes out of about 2.3 million ballots cast. The remaining votes in Republican-leaning areas are not enough for Trump to overtake Biden’s lead.

Minnesota has been solidly Democratic for the past half-century, but has turned into a presidential battleground.

Trump targeted the state after narrowly losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 1.6 percentage points.

Republicans, however, suffered a blow in the 2018 midterm elections. Minnesota Democrats flipped two suburban congressional districts, took back control of the state House by winning suburban Trump-voting areas and came within one seat of winning control of the state Senate.

The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidates was Richard Nixon in 1972.

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WHY AP CALLED MISSISSIPPI FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Mississippi as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of voting statistics confirmed expectations that the state’s longstanding political trends in favor of Republican presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

A Democratic presidential contender hasn’t won Mississippi since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump carried the state by more than 17 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED MISSOURI FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Missouri at 10:18 p.m. EST, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 44% of the expected vote counted, Trump led Biden by roughly 16 percentage points.

Bill Clinton in 1996 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Missouri. Trump carried the state by over 18 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED MONTANA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Montana at 12:14 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 56% of the expected vote counted, Trump led Biden by nearly 6 percentage points. The remaining vote count in Democratic leaning areas was not enough to overcome Trump’s lead.

Bill Clinton in 1992 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state. Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED NEBRASKA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of the statewide vote in Nebraska as soon as polls closed there, even though election officials had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

A Democrat hasn’t won a presidential race in Nebraska since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. The news agency called the race for Trump after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics confirmed expectations that the state’s longstanding political trends in favor of Republican presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

While the AP called the state for Trump, Nebraska is one of two states that don’t award electoral votes on a “winner take all” basis.

Instead, the statewide winner garners two electoral votes, while the winner in each of the state’s three congressional districts is awarded 1 vote per district they carry.

Trump carried Nebraska’s 3rd and 1st congressional districts. Biden took Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which Trump carried in 2016 when he won the state by about 25 points.

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WHY AP CALLED NEVADA FOR BIDEN:

The Associated Press declared Joe Biden the winner of Nevada’s presidential contest Saturday, after a batch 15,000 ballots released by state election officials gave the former vice president a more than 2 percentage point lead over President Donald Trump.

When the race was called, the AP had already declared the Democrat had won Pennsylvania — and with it the presidency.

But a quicker result in Nevada could easily have pushed Biden over the 270 electoral threshold needed to win, too.

Vote tabulation there has been a slow going process. Though 88 percent of the expected vote has been counted, mail ballots postmarked by the Nov. 3 election day can be counted until Tuesday. And there were tens of thousands of provisional ballots left to sort through.

The AP called the race for Biden after a ballots released Saturday, nearly all of which were from Clark County, a Democratic area where most of the state’s voters live, confirmed that Trump could not catch up.

Biden won those new votes by a margin of 57% over Trump. The Nevada Secretary of State’s office says 90 percent of remaining ballot to be counted are from Clark County, which Biden was winning overall by about 10 percentage points on Saturday.

One reason the call couldn’t be made until Saturday was there had been questions Friday about how much of the vote was left to count across the state, including these:

— Clark County officials said Thursday that they would be releasing the results of 51,000 ballots on Friday. But they later clarified that they had overestimated the size of the batch and released results from about 30,000 ballots instead.

— Separately, state officials said Thursday that there were about 190,000 votes left to count statewide, a total that included mail ballots and provisional ballots from voters who registered or updated their registration at the polls. But it was unclear if that figure took into account the overestimated number of ballots by Clark County election officials.

In a tight race, that can delay a call. For example, in the 2004 race between George W. Bush and John Kerry, the AP did not call the winner of the election in Ohio until it was able to confirm that Bush’s lead exceeded the number of provisional ballots left to be counted.

Nevada, once a swing state, has trended toward Democrats in the past decade. But this year there were signs that Trump could have an opening after narrowly losing the state in 2016. He held multiple rallies in the state in the months before the election.

In 2016, he performed better than Mitt Romney did in 2012. or John McCain in 2008. The state also has has a higher percentage of non-college-educated whites, who have made up the base of his electoral support, than in many other pivotal states, including Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Bush was the last Republican to win there, in 2004.

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WHY AP CALLED NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Joe Biden the winner of New Hampshire at 10:50 p.m. EST, after an analysis of ballots statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow President Donald Trump to catch up.

With 48% of the expected vote counted, Biden led Trump by nearly 9 percentage points — or about 33,000 votes out of 382,000 counted.

Completed vote counts in a representative selection of precincts in communities across New Hampshire also showed Biden comfortably ahead of Trump.

Those results matched data from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics. The survey found Biden with a significant lead in the state.

New Hampshire last voted for a Republican presidential contender in 2004 when George W. Bush was on the ballot. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the state by less than a percentage point in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED NEW JERSEY FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of New Jersey as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won New Jersey since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Democrat Hillary Clinton carried the state by 14 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED NEW MEXICO FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of New Mexico as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics confirmed expectations the state’s longstanding political trends in favor of Democratic presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Trump initially planned to contest New Mexico, which has only voted for a Republican presidential candidate once since 1992, and even held a 2019 rally in Rio Rancho. But the state was not truly within his grasp and his campaign long ago gave up on trying to win it.

Democrats control all statewide offices and both Senate seats, as well as the state’s three congressional districts.

George W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to win the state in 2004. Hillary Clinton carried New Mexico in 2016 by 8 percentage points.

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WHY AP CALLED NEW YORK FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of New York as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Ronald Reagan in 1984 was the last Republican to win the state. Trump, who was raised in Queens and built his personal brand as a brash New York City real estate developer, lost the state by more than 22 points in 2016.

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WHY AP HASN’T CALLED NORTH CAROLINA:

The Associated Press has not declared a winner in North Carolina’s presidential contest because the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden is too early to call.

Trump, who is locked in a tight battle with Biden to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, prematurely claimed early Wednesday that he won the state.

“We’ve clearly won North Carolina, where we’re up 1.7%, 77,000 votes with only approximately 5% left. They can’t catch us,” he said during an appearance at the White House. Trump also said he planned to contest the U.S. presidential election before the Supreme Court. It was unclear, exactly, what legal action he might pursue.

Though Trump is correct that he held a nearly 77,000-vote lead in the state Thursday, the race is too early to call with up to 116,000 mail ballots left to count, as well as the potential of thousands of provisional ballots.

As long as those ballots are postmarked by Nov. 3, state election officials have until Nov. 12 to count them. And when it comes to mail ballots, Biden was outperforming Trump by far.

That means there’s a considerable number of ballots yet to be counted that could give Biden a lead.

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WHY AP CALLED NORTH DAKOTA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of North Dakota as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

The news agency did so after results from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics confirmed expectations the state’s longstanding political trends in favor of Republican presidential candidates will hold.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state. Trump won North Dakota by 36 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY THE AP CALLED OHIO FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Ohio at 12:17 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 85% of the expected vote counted, Biden led Trump by roughly 4 percentage points — or about 120,000 votes out of 3 million counted. The remaining votes left to be counted in Democratic areas — both absentee and provisional ballots — were not enough for Biden to overtake Trump’s lead.

For a long time, Ohio was the quintessential swing state, which Barack Obama won twice.

Yet Trump carried it by 8 points in 2016. And after Republican wins statewide over the past decade, it has increasingly proven to be out of Democrats’ reach.

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WHY AP CALLED OKLAHOMA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Oklahoma as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state. Trump carried Oklahoma by 36 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED OREGON FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Oregon as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Oregon since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Democrat Hillary Clinton beat President Donald Trump in the state by 11 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED PENNSYLVANIA FOR BIDEN:

Four years ago, President Donald Trump breached the Democrats’ “blue wall,” narrowly winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — a trio of Great Lakes states that had long served as a bulwark against Republican presidential candidates.

On Saturday, Democrat Joe Biden captured it back — and also won the presidency — after The Associated Press declared the former vice president the winner of his native Pennsylvania at 11:25 a.m. EST.

The AP called the race for Biden, who held a 34,243-vote lead, after it determined that the remaining ballots left to be counted would not allow Trump to catch up. The news agency has already declared Biden the winner in both Michigan and Wisconsin.

Biden held a .51 percentage point lead late Saturday morning. Under Pennsylvania law, a recount is automatic when the margin between two candidates in a statewide race is less than 0.5 percentage points. Biden’s lead over Trump was on track to stay outside of that margin as final votes are counted.

There are roughly 62,000 mail ballots remaining to be counted. Biden has won the overwhelming majority of mail ballots cast in the state.

Biden’s win in Pennsylvania was a dramatic, though not unexpected, turn after Trump jumped out to an early Election Day lead of 675,000 votes and prematurely declared he had won the state.

Over coming days, as local elections officials tabulated more ballots, Trump’s lead dropped sharply, with Biden winning roughly 75 percent of the mail-in vote between Wednesday and Friday, according to an analysis by the AP.

Another reason the late-breaking mail vote broke Biden’s way: Under state law, elections officials are not allowed to process mail-in ballots until Election Day.

Biden, who was born in Scranton, claims favorite-son status in the state and has long played up the idea that he was Pennsylvania’s “third senator” during his decades representing neighboring Delaware. He’s also campaigned extensively in the state from his home in Delaware.

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WHY AP CALLED RHODE ISLAND FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Rhode Island as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Rhode Island since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the state by over 15 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED SOUTH CAROLINA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of South Carolina at 7:53 p.m. EST, after results from early returns and an AP survey of the electorate showed Trump had beaten Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the state.

While only about 3% of the vote had been counted statewide, completed counts in a representative selection of precincts in communities across South Carolina showed Trump comfortably ahead.

Those results matched data from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics. The survey found Trump with a substantial lead in the state. VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

South Carolina hasn’t swung for a Democratic presidential contender since the 1976 election of Jimmy Carter, who is from neighboring Georgia. Trump won the state by over 14 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED SOUTH DAKOTA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of South Dakota as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state. Trump won South Dakota by almost 30 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED TENNESSEE FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Tennessee as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Bill Clinton in 1996 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Tennessee. Trump carried the state by 26 percentage points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED TEXAS FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Texas at 12:54 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 82% of the expected vote counted, Trump led Biden by roughly 5 percentage points — or about 626,000 votes out of roughly 10.8 million counted. The remaining ballots left to be tabulated in Democratic-leaning areas were not enough for Biden to overcome Trump’s lead.

Trump won Texas by 9 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Republicans dominate state government in the capital, Austin. And a Democrat hasn’t won statewide since 1994.

But headed into Election Day, Democrats argued Texas was a competitive.

Demographics in the state have been shifting. The population is booming. Latinos are flocking to the state. Job opportunities have also drawn people from across the U.S., who have brought with them their more liberal values.

Beto O’Rourke, a former El Paso congressman, came within 3 percentage points of beating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.

It was enough to entice Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, to make a last-minute visit to Fort Worth in the final week of the campaign.

But Trump’s victory again dashed the Democratic hope that the state was on the cusp of flipping. And for all their optimism, Democrats are still faced with the reality that their 26-year drought without a statewide win will continue.

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WHY THE AP CALLED UTAH FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Utah at 11:06 p.m. EST, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding ones to allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to catch up.

With 65% of the expected vote counted, Trump had a 145,000-vote lead over Biden out of roughly 913,000 ballots cast, which amounted to a roughly 16 percentage point lead.

Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state. Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in Utah by 18 percentage points in 2016, even with Utah-native Evan McMullin appearing on the ballot as a conservative alternative to Trump.

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WHY AP CALLED VERMONT FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Vermont as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Biden’s victory in Vermont is not a surprise: Democrats have won the state in every presidential election since 1992, and it is home to former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders.

Democrat Hillary Clinton carried the state in 2016 by over 28 percentage points.

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WHY AP CALLED VIRGINIA FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democratic nominee Joe Biden the winner of Virginia at 7:31 p.m. EST, after results from early returns and an AP survey of the electorate showed the former vice president had beaten President Donald Trump in the state.

With about 53% of the vote counted statewide at 11 p.m., completed counts in a representative selection of precincts in communities across Virginia showed Biden comfortably ahead of Trump.

Those results matched data from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics. The survey found Biden with a substantial lead in the state. VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Trump jumped out to an early lead in Virginia because many Republican counties reported their results first. But much of the remaining ballots left to be counted were cast in population-dense Democratic areas near Washington D.C., including Fairfax and Prince William counties.

Virginia was once solidly Republican, with President George W. Bush winning there as recently as 2004. But explosive growth in northern Virginia’s Washington, D.C., suburbs has led to an influx of increasingly diverse and Democratic-leaning voters who have helped tip the balance of power.

Democrat Hillary Clinton won Virginia by more than 5 points in 2016. The state has a Democratic governor. And in 2019, Democrats took control of both chambers of the Legislature for the first time in decades.

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WHY AP CALLED WASHINGTON FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner of Washington state as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

It’s no surprise Biden won Washington state. Democrats control the governor’s office, the Legislature and both Senate seats.

Though voters there went for Republican presidential candidates in the 1970s and ’80s, left-leaning politics is woven into the state’s political DNA.

The state’s population-dense Puget Sound region has long been a hotbed of labor activism. Seattle, the state’s largest city, was the site of the first general strike of the 20th century in 1919. And Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s postmaster general, James Farley, once joked in 1936 that there were “forty-seven states in the Union, and the Soviet of Washington.” Hawaii and Alaska were not yet states at the time.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Washington state since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Trump lost the 2016 vote by 16 percentage points.

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WHY AP CALLED WASHINGTON, D.C., FOR BIDEN:

The AP declared Democratic nominee Joe Biden the winner of Washington, D.C., at 9:26 p.m. EST, after an analysis of ballots cast across the district concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow President Donald Trump to catch up.

With 41% of the expected vote counted, Biden led Trump by roughly 86 percentage points. Those results matched data from AP VoteCast and an analysis of early voting statistics. The survey found Biden with an overwhelming lead.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

The nation’s capital has never voted for a Republican since it was granted electoral votes in 1961. Hillary Clinton carried it by over 85 points in 2016.

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WHY AP CALLED WEST VIRGINIA FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of West Virginia as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Trump won West Virginia by 42 points in 2016. The last Democratic presidential contender to carry the state was Bill Clinton in 1996.

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WHY AP CALLED WISCONSIN FOR BIDEN:

Democrat Joe Biden has flipped the state of Wisconsin, a crucial presidential battleground that President Donald Trump carried by less than a percentage point in 2016.

The Associated Press called the race for Biden after election officials there said all outstanding ballots had been counted, except for a few hundred in one township and a small number of provisional ballots around the state. It’s a finding the news agency confirmed after reaching out to every single county in the state to get an accounting of votes left to be counted. The former vice president’s lead there is now so great that there is no way the remaining votes would allow Trump to catch up.

Trump’s campaign has requested a recount, which a trailing candidate is allowed to do under state law if a race is within 1 percentage point. Statewide recounts in Wisconsin have historically changed the vote tally by only a few hundred votes. Biden leads by .624 percentage points out of nearly 3.3 million ballots counted.

“The President is well within the threshold to request a recount and we will immediately do so,” Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement.

Wisconsin is a key state in the tight contest between Trump and Biden to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Democrats long considered it part of their “blue wall” — a trifecta of states that also includes Pennsylvania and Michigan — which served as a bulwark in presidential elections.

But in 2016, a combined total of about 80,000 voters spread across those states narrowly handed Trump the presidency. He carried each state by less than a percentage point.

With Biden winning Wisconsin and Michigan, all eyes are on Pennsylvania and Nevada, with the fate of the presidency hanging in the balance. Those two states, which are still too early to call, will be crucial in determining who wins.

For much of Election Night and into the early morning hours of Wednesday, Trump held a lead in Wisconsin. However, there were large number of absentee ballots in Democratic-leaning Milwaukee County that remained to be counted.

At 4:40 a.m. EST, election officials released results showing that 69,000 absentee ballots from the county had put Biden in the lead, wiping out Trump’s 31,000-vote lead. Over the next few hours, Biden’s lead continued to grow.

Though Trump has requested a recount, there is little historical precedent to suggest the results of the contest will be overturned — particularly given Biden’s margin over Trump.

Electoral research conducted by the AP found there have been 31 statewide recounts since 2000. Three of those changed the outcome of the election. The initial margins in those races were 137 votes, 215 votes and 261 votes.

The average shift in the margin between the top two candidates was 0.019%.

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WHY AP CALLED WYOMING FOR TRUMP:

The AP declared President Donald Trump the winner of Wyoming as soon as polls closed in the state, even though election officials there had yet to release any results from Tuesday’s presidential contest.

VoteCast, the AP’s wide-ranging survey of the American electorate, captures voters’ choices and why they made them.

Lyndon Johnson in 1964 was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state. Trump won Wyoming by 47 points in 2016.

Article Topic Follows: National Politics

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