Health officials predict Santa Cruz County COVID-19 surge in coming months

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY, Calif. (KION) Santa Cruz County is seeing a decrease in case rates, but Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel said officials expect another COVID-19 surge in a few months.

Newel said they expect the surge based on state models that the county's modeling supports. She said local modeling shows that there may be an increase in hospitalizations, deaths and ICU admissions in April and warns that residents should continue to wear face coverings.

"Despite vaccination happening as quickly as we get the supply, it's likely not going to be quick enough with newly transmissible variants. Taking those factors into account leads us to believe there will be a surge late March," she said during a news conference Thursday.

Over the last 14 days, Newel said there has been a 55% decrease in the case rate, and the adjusted case rate puts Santa Cruz County in the range needed for some schools to apply for waivers.

The adjusted case rate is 31.0, and Newel said that number was at 71 two weeks ago. The positivity rate for this week is 5.6% in the county.

Bay Area health officers said this week that they will prioritize residents aged 75 and older when distributing vaccines, and county officials said they are working to partner with the state to bring an Optum Serve testing site to the county with online and phone-in registration.