COVID-19 peak could be July if social distancing is followed
SANTA CRUZ, Calif. (KION) https://livestream.com/accounts/25723746/events/8522569/videos/203912119 There are 57 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Santa Cruz County as of April 2, according to the Santa Cruz County Health Services Agency.
The county is still months away from reaching its peak, if social distancing is strictly followed.
“The public doesn’t want to hear we’ll be doing this for months, but that would be a really good thing in terms of our hospital capacity, our ventilator capacity and a decreased number of deaths,” county Health Officer Dr. Gail Newel said.
If the shelter-in-place and social distancing guidelines are not obeyed the peak could come much quicker but would also be more devastating.
ICU capacity right now locally is not adequate to handle the projected surge.
“Do we have enough ventilators? My answer [is] no we don’t have enough. That’s why it's so important for us to focus on the prevention side,” Health Services Director Mimi Hall said.
The CDC reports about one out of every seven COVID-19 victims with symptoms are hospitalized. Most victims of the virus who need hospitalization will require a ventilator, according to health experts.
“We have a surge capacity of about 50 on a normal day. On a non-pandemic day that is normally about 25,” deputy health officer Dr. David Ghilarducci said.
An alternative care site at Simpkins Swim Center is opening in Santa Cruz for non-COVID-19 patients, and the county is expected to open a second. The goal is to leave as much room in hospitals for coronavirus victims.
“Some projections we’re seeing right now are that by the end of April or mid-May we could exceed our capacity of ICU and ventilators,” Ghilarducci said.
County health officials predict Santa Cruz is roughly two weeks behind the Bay Area counties on the curve.
“One of the reasons we’re reluctant in release numbers is, because the data is so limited that we put into the modeling. So we’re preparing for the worst,” Hall said.
