Tropical Storm Helene just formed. In just over 48 hours it could hit Florida as a major hurricane

By CNN Meteorologist Mary Gilbert and Susannah Cullinane

(CNN) — Time is running out for Floridians in the path of Helene, which threatens to hit as the strongest storm to make landfall in the United States in over a year.

Tropical Storm Helene formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday morning and will set off on a breakneck pace of strengthening. It could take Helene just 48 hours to go from a 45 mph tropical storm to a Category 3 major hurricane as it rapidly intensifies over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

TRACK THE STORM: See the latest spaghetti models and maps here

This accelerated timeline means now is the time for Floridians to prepare for damaging winds, flooding rainfall and potentially life-threatening storm surge. There could also be shifts in Helene’s track in the coming days, the National Hurricane Center warned, and that could alter where its worst impacts occur.

The Southeast should prepare, too. Helene will also be exceptionally large and powerful and impact an area far beyond Florida. Torrential rain, strong winds capable of causing significant power outages and the threat of tornadoes will stretch into the region.

Evacuations are likely Tuesday for coastal areas of Florida facing down potentially life-threatening storm surge. Taylor County in Florida’s Big Bend region is likely to issue a county-wide evacuation order later Tuesday, according to a social media post from the sheriff’s office.

The Big Bend area is where Helene is currently projected to come ashore, and it faces the most serious storm surge: up to 15 feet of it is possible. The storm’s large size and intensity could also drive up to 8 feet of surge in the greater Tampa area and multiple feet of surge in areas farther south.

With little time to prepare, Tampa General Hospital began erecting a 10-foot-high flood barrier around the facility Monday because of the storm surge risk.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has expanded an emergency declaration from 41 for 61 of the state’s 67 counties Tuesday over the threat of more inland impacts. The declaration helps expedite preparations and coordination between the state and local governments ahead of the storm’s arrival.

At least 3,000 members of the Florida National Guard are ready to assist with storm efforts and the Florida State Guard has been activated, DeSantis confirmed at a press conference Tuesday. Additionally, the state has “hundreds of Starlinks” to deploy in case internet access is lost, according to DeSantis.

Tropical storm-force wind gusts could begin as early as Wednesday afternoon for the Florida Keys and spread northward, reaching much of the Peninsula by Thursday morning at the earliest. Hurricane-force wind gusts could follow closely behind for many coastal areas.

The worst wind and rain in the Tampa area could start late Wednesday night. It won’t let up through Thursday evening, with hurricane-force winds possible, according to the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay.

The Tallahassee area will have a few more hours to prepare. Landfall is expected southeast of Tallahassee late Thursday, but the worst conditions will arrive in the city earlier and last throughout the day.

Tropical storm-force winds will spread over more of the Southeast by Thursday evening and, along with soaking rainfall, could bring down trees and trigger widespread power outages.

Heavy rainfall is possible for much of the Southeast starting around midweek, but the most torrential rain will fall Thursday into Friday morning. A level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rain is in place for parts of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and parts of the Carolinas Thursday, according to the Weather Prediction Center.

Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected from Florida’s Gulf Coast into parts of Tennessee, the Carolinas and Virginia. Totals could approach a foot in parts of the Florida Panhandle and the southern Appalachians. Much of this rain will fall by Friday for the Gulf Coast, but it’ll be a wet weekend farther north.

Florida’s Big Bend region seems to be a magnet for hurricanes recently. Hurricane Debby slammed into the region in early August as a Category 1 and recovery efforts are still ongoing as the region braces for another blow.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the US as a Category 3 – Idalia – also came ashore there and generated a record-breaking storm surge from Tampa to the Big Bend in August last year.

Idalia went through a period of rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico – with its sustained winds increasing 55 mph over the course of 24 hours.

Helene would be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the US this year and the fifth hurricane to slam Florida since 2022.

The repeated blows have pushed Florida’s insurance market to the brink, with insurers pulling out of the state because of the increasing risk of extreme weather due to climate change.

CNN’s Rebekah Riess contributed to this report.

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