Tumultuous weekend for Israelis leaves Netanyahu with fewer options than ever

Analysis by Nic Robertson, CNN

(CNN) — They were sons, daughters, brothers and sisters to a nation. Little wonder Saturday’s discovery of six hostages killed in Gaza has Israelis’ blood boiling.

The nation feels on a cusp of a major turning point.

Gripped by swelling protests and labor union strikes, the weeks ahead for Israel are unpredictable. These well-tested democratic tools of change have toppled governments before, but it’s best to remember that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a political survivor extraordinaire.

Even now, Netanyahu and the hard-right nationalist members of his cabinet are working to shut down the legal protests and strikes through a court order, that seemed in the short term at least to have been successful.

Yet despite the outcome being unclear, this tumultuous moment has been building for months.

Galvanized by growing frustration waiting for Netanyahu to cut a deal with Hamas to bring home from Gaza the 101 remaining hostages, including 35 who are believed to be dead, according to data from the Israeli Prime Minister’s officer, it is Hamas, not surprisingly, that appears to be having a decisive say.

Its leader Yahya Sinwar exploits every weakness in Netanyahu he can manipulate, the most potent of which is vulnerability to public opinion as Israel prepares to mark the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack in which about 1,200 Israelis were killed and some 250 others kidnapped and taken to Gaza.

His moves may be calculated to weaken Netanyahu’s resolve, and they’re having a predictable impact.

Unlike Palestinians in Gaza, Israelis can rise up to challenge their leadership. Late-night skirmishes between protesters and the authorities Sunday on Tel Aviv’s usually hyper-busy eight-lane Ayalon Highway were a manifestation of that.

As flames and dense smoke engulfed wooden pallets and tires on the roads, I watched a young man, blue paint spray in hand, scrawl his message to the prime minister in foot-high letters on the roadside wall: “Hostages or revolt.”

Nearby, two teenage girls speaking in well-articulated English told me they’d never been to a protest before, but the deaths of Goldberg-Polin and the five other hostages compelled them to come tonight.

When I asked if they thought the protests would change the Netanyahu’s mind, without missing a beat, both told me they doubted it.

It is a question gripping the nation, not least because the writing on the wall here has been wrong before. For many the protests and strikes cover well-trodden ground, tilted in favor of the government.

Even Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s public condemnation of Netanyahu’s negotiating tactics, emotively calling him a “disgrace,” revisits previous rifts within the government.

Last year Netanyahu fired Gallant, for breaking with the government over highly contentious judicial reforms, before rehiring him shortly afterwards.

The difference is that now, Gallant and the country are fighting several wars: Hamas in the south; a hostile enemy, Hezbollah, on their northern border; an alleged terror threat in the West Bank; not to mention a still unpaid threat of retaliation by Iran for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran a month ago.

Netanyahu’s multi-fronted challenges, like with so many spinning plates, need constant juggling. His unprecedented coalition cabinet is bounded by extreme-right nationalists, Security Minister Itmar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Above all others in his unruly cabinet, they are the pair who routinely threaten to collapse his coalition if he is seen as softening on Hamas. They owe their outsized influence to him, and would lose it if they topple him.

Knowing their time in government may be limited, they focus their leverage on policies, like expanding settlements that build their own base. Bringing down Netanyahu would shoot them in the foot. It is why they are at the forefront of shutting down the strikes and protests.

At the protests Sunday, as horseback police muscled their powerful mounts toward the crowds, many shouted to them: “We are not against you as individual police, only your boss Ben Gvir.”

A measure of potential change will be how brave protesters feel against police emboldened by court orders Ben Gvir seeks to crack down on them and labor unions.

How united the country’s potentially powerful unions remain in the face of government pressure to keep the country running will also show which side has the momentum.

Ben Gurion airport appeared to stall early Monday before recovering flight operations a little later. Unions had already shuttered Israel’s only major international hub during the massive judicial reform strikes last year.

So much is in the balance right now. Netanyahu’s short video message Sunday blaming Hamas for the death of the six and stalled hostage negotiations is indicative of his efforts to hunker down and limit damage to him.

His unmatched political survival skills have kept him in office through bigger protests before, and few will be willing to bet he is about to throw in the towel now. The question is, how long can he hold on for?

More days like Sunday, with the nation at the febrile intersection of heartache, frustration and anger, will challenge Netanyahu like never before.

He is not just up against his usual enemies, the country’s liberal left, but in a fight-to-the-death tangle with the Hamas leader, who has made it clear that he is prepared engage in moments of unimaginable brutality to get what he wants.

For Israel, the outlook is bleak: the chances of a cathartic hostage freedom moment are fading, along with Netanyahu’s political fortunes.

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