Forecasters were caught off guard by Otis’ growth. But warming means more hurricanes like it

By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

Hurricane Otis unexpectedly turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out what happened. Usually reliable computer models and the forecasters who use them didn’t see Otis’ explosive intensification coming as it approached Mexico’s Pacific coast. That created a nightmare scenario of an unexpectedly strong storm striking at night, and officials say at least 27 people are dead. Acapulco was told to expect a tropical storm just below hurricane strength, but 24 hours later, Otis blasted ashore with the strongest landfall of any East Pacific hurricane. While Otis wasn’t expected to be so strong, it coincides with a documented trend of hurricanes rapidly intensifying more often in recent decades because of warmer water connected to climate change.