Lee could approach Category 5 hurricane strength in record-warm Atlantic

CNN

By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist

(CNN) — Lee rapidly intensified into a strong tropical storm Wednesday morning as it tracks over record-warm ocean waters and an environment favorable for strengthening, which will fuel the storm to near Category-5 strength as it approaches the eastern Caribbean.

Lee was a strong tropical storm late Wednesday morning with sustained winds of 70 mph and higher gusts, the National Hurricane Center reported, located 1,200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Lee’s sustained winds strengthened by 35 mph in the 24 hours after it formed as a tropical depression Tuesday morning.

Even more rapid intensification – defined as an increase in wind speeds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less – is expected in the coming days. The forecast track takes the hurricane across some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Ocean and through relatively calm upper-level winds, which will allow Lee to explode in strength. By Friday night, Lee is expected to be a monstrous Category 4 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 150 mph.

The waters in the Atlantic are not quite as warm as the steamy conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, which gave rise to Hurricane Idalia last week. However, sea-surface temperatures across the portion of the Atlantic Ocean that Lee is set to track through are still a staggering 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal after rising to “far above record levels” this summer, according David Zierden, Florida’s state climatologist.

“To get to Category 4 or 5 intensity the environment has to be nearly perfect, which it looks like is the forecast for Lee,” Zierden told CNN.

Lee’s maximum forecast intensity of 150 mph is equivalent to the strongest storm in the Atlantic basin this season – Hurricane Franklin – and stronger than any storm so far in the eastern Pacific. If Lee tops 150 mph, it will be the most powerful hurricane to roam either basin this year.

That forecast is also just 7 mph shy of Category 5.

“This storm definitely has the potential to be a Category 5,” Jason Dunion, Director of NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program, told CNN.

The last Category 5 hurricane to roam the Atlantic basin was 2022’s Hurricane Ian. Before that, 2019’s Dorian and Lorenzo were the most recent hurricanes to achieve the feat. Only 39 Category 5 hurricanes have occurred since 1924, according to data from NOAA.

Lee’s potential path brings danger to islands this weekend

Lee’s strength will ultimately dictate the intensity and reach of the cyclone’s impacts. Lee will start to impact the Lesser Antilles – including the Leeward and Windward islands – on Friday. Swells from the cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across islands like Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia and the US and British Virgin Islands.

Any shifts along Lee’s track as it nears the Leeward Islands would increase the threat of more direct impacts like heavy rainfall and strong winds. Anyone in the eastern Caribbean – including the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola – as well as the Bahamas will need to keep a close eye on the forecast headed into the weekend.

It’s too soon to know whether this system will directly impact the US mainland, but even if the hurricane stays off the coast, dangerous surf and rip currents could once again threaten the Eastern Seaboard. One person was killed in a rip current in New Jersey over the Labor Day weekend.

Lee will ramp up in intensity as the the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches. Sunday, September 10, is the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, when the basin is at its busiest on average. A flurry of tropical activity surrounding this date is not out of the ordinary, but it can turn hazardous fast.

The 2023 Atlantic season has already been busy: It is tracking above average for a number of different metrics including number of named storms, number of hurricanes and number of major hurricanes, according to Philip Klotzbach a research scientist at Colorado State University.

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CNN’s Nouran Salahieh contributed to this report.