Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to rapidly intensify as it aims for Florida’s Gulf Coast, threatening to hit as a Category 3 hurricane

CNN

By Nouran Salahieh, Joe Sutton and Rachel Ramirez, CNN

(CNN) — Florida is bracing for “major impact” as Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane and aim for its Gulf Coast, threatening dangerous storm surge and winds, authorities said.

Idalia is expected to intensify over the coming hours before it makes landfall in the Sunshine State on Wednesday morning near the Big Bend of Florida – a rare event for a natural, storm surge-prone divot along the coast stretching from Tampa to just south of Tallahassee.

“Idalia could become a hurricane later this morning, and is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm is churning maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, roughly 190 miles southwest of the Dry Tortugas, where tropical storm conditions were expected Tuesday morning, the hurricane center said in a 2 a.m. ET Tuesday update.

“This is going to be a major hurricane,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a Monday news conference.

On its current track, Idalia’s center is forecast to soon pass near or over western Cuba, trek over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, before slamming into the Gulf coast of Florida Wednesday – though its impacts could be felt from the Florida Keys as soon as Tuesday.

It’s not just Florida that’ll feel the impacts. After the storm makes landfall, damaging winds and heavy rain will spread far inland into Florida, parts of Georgia and even the Carolinas.

The storm is expected to dump 4 to 8 inches of rain from Tuesday into Thursday across parts of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas – where streets could flood.

As the storm makes its way to Florida, preparations could be seen across the state. Here’s the latest:

• Airports close: Tampa International Airport will suspend all commercial operations beginning Tuesday and stay closed until it can assess any damages later in the week, airport officials announced. The St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport Terminal building will close Tuesday afternoon.

• Evacuations in at least 10 counties: Hillsborough, Franklin, Taylor, Levy, Citrus, Manatee, Pasco, Hernando, Pinellas and Sarasota counties have all called for residents to evacuate certain at-risk areas.

• Schools close: 32 County School Districts have issued closures, as did multiple colleges and universities, including Florida State University, the University of Florida and Florida A&M University.

• Emergencies declared: DeSantis expanded an emergency declaration to 46 of 67 Florida counties on Monday morning. Several local jurisdictions have also declared emergencies.

• The Florida National Guard activated: More than 5,000 National Guard members were activated to help respond to the storm.

• US Navy ships begin leaving: Navy ships have begun leaving Florida ahead of Tropical Storm Idalia’s landfall, the Navy said Monday.
• Power outages expected: DeSantis told residents to prepare to be without power. “If you are in the path of the storm, you should expect power outages so please prepare for that,” the governor told residents Sunday.
• Hospital system suspending services: Patients will be transferred from at least three hospitals: HCA Florida Pasadena Hospital, HCA Florida Trinity West Hospital and HCA Florida West Tampa Hospital.

“We want everyone to take this storm seriously,” Barbara Tripp, Tampa’s Fire Rescue Chief said during a news conference.

The Fire Chief also asked citizens to clear debris from property ahead of the storm’s arrival and look out for neighbors who may need help.

“Once the wind reaches a certain miles per hour, Tampa Fire Rescue will not be able to respond,” Tripp warned.

With the storm forecast to strengthen quickly as it tracks through the Gulf of Mexico, it’ll be tapping into some of the warmest waters on the planet ahead of making landfall in Florida.

If it does so, it would join a growing list of devastating storms like monster Hurricane Ian — which leveled coastal Florida and left more than 100 dead — to rapidly intensify before landfall in recent years.

Idalia posed a “notable risk” of this phenomenon, the National Hurricane Center warned Monday, as it travels through the Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures around southern Florida climbed to 100 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas this summer, and temperatures in the Gulf overall have been record-warm, with more than enough heat to support rapid strengthening.

Storm surge will be ‘life-threatening’

Life-threatening storm surge up to 12 feet is possible in Florida’s Big Bend – a danger that will only be worsened by waves fueled by hurricane-force winds stronger than 100 mph.

Storm surge, which is when a storm blows the ocean onshore, is one of the deadliest aspects of a hurricane and the reason behind most storm evacuations.

Cedar Key could be cut off by the high storm surge, National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said.

“I’m especially concerned for them,” Rhome said during a briefing on Facebook Live. “If you’re watching from Cedar Key, it is imperative that you take this very seriously and if ordered to evacuate, heed those evacuations immediately. The entire island could be completely cut off with conditions like that.”

Rhome stressed that evacuation orders that have been issued along the coast are in place because of the projected storm surge.

Storm surge accounts for nearly half of all hurricane-related fatalities, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

It’s not just the coastal areas that could flood.

Inland areas, where people may evacuate to, could see hazardous flooding and heavy rainfall from Idalia.

Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior researcher at the Columbia University’s Climate School, warns that heavy rainfall-related hazards can also occur as far as 100 miles away from where the storm center tracks.

“This is something that we’re seeing more and more, and this is a climate change connection because we’re seeing wetter tropical cyclones and wetter hurricanes,” he told CNN. “So we need to pay more attention to the risks associated with intense precipitation, especially in areas that are distant from the coastline.”

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CNN meteorologists Robert Shackelford and Taylor Ward and CNN’s Mary Gilbert, Melissa Alonso, Devon Sayers and Jennifer Henderson contributed to this report.