Can Santa Cruz County survive a catastrophic quake?
One county on the Central Coast needs to take earthquake preparedness very seriously. That’s Santa Cruz County, hit hard by the 1989 Loma Prieta Quake, coming up on its 26th anniversary this Saturday.
A 2007 report called “San Francisco Bay Area Catastrophic Earthquake Incident Scenario” details what would likely to happen to Santa Cruz in the event of an earthquake up to magnitude 7.9 along the San Andreas Fault Line.
Among the “projected impacts:”
-The earthquake caused landslides along Highway 17
-30 destructive fires due to gas line breaks and electrical transmission disruptions
-54,000 households without electrical services on the day of and the day after the quake
-Nearly 180 bridges damaged, 27 with complete structural damage
-An estimated 120 immediate deaths and 62 people trapped and needing rescue.
Not to mention, complete isolation because of Santa Cruz’s geography.
“Santa Cruz is a very unique situation,” Santa Cruz Fire Chief Jim Frawley said. “It is isolated from pretty much the rest of the state. We’ve got hillsides, we’ve got rivers that separate the population centers here in Santa Cruz County from other population centers.”
The county has learned from the past. Just look at what happened in the Pacific Garden Mall area.
“Kind of what we saw in 1989 in the downtown area is why we had so much damage is because of the soil and the liquefaction,” said Paul Horvat, the Santa Cruz County Emergency Services Manager. “As well as there were buildings without reinforced masonry. So, a lot of that has been mitigated since the 1989 earthquake.”
The county’s emergency services office has a course of action, taking into account transportation, evacuation and shelter plans. There are also doctors and paramedics ready to set up emergency care sites if local hospitals get too crowded. A group of pilots are on standby to fly supplies in and out of the county when needed.
But, some of the infrastructure is still vulnerable. A landslide triggered by Loma Prieta shut down Highway 17 for weeks. That could happen again.
“The hills aren’t protected from earthquakes,” Chief Frawley said. “They’re gonna be affected and up there you have trees that fall down, landslides and rock slides that can occur. And really what’s going to affect them significantly is those roadways, Highway 9 and Empire Grade. Those roadways that go up into those areas are going to be compromised because of these landslides and rock slides.”
A stretch of Highway 1 near Watsonville collapsed in 1989.
“A lot of those bridges have been seismically upgraded,” Horvat said. “I can’t say that every single one has, so there is the potential for failures in a catastrophic earthquake.”
First responders warn, being self-sufficient and having enough supplies for at least 72 hours could mean the difference between life and death.
“Quite frankly, we’re going to be on our own for a long time here,” Chief Frawley said. “We need to realize that. We can’t expect that local government and county government’s going to come to your rescue because we’re going to have significant events happening throughout the area.”
