Analysis: After Juan Soto’s megadeal, could MLB see a $1 billion contract? Probably not soon

AP Baseball Writer

For the second straight Major League Baseball offseason, a norm-shattering contract has been the talk of the winter, with Juan Soto agreeing with the New York Mets on a $765 million, 15-year deal that’s the richest in baseball history.

It comes almost exactly one year after the Los Angeles Dodgers forked out a princely sum of $700 million on a 10-year, heavily deferred deal for two-way Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani. They are believed to be the two richest contracts in pro sports history.

The way it’s going, a contract approaching $1 billion doesn’t seem out of the question.

But several factors are working against it — at least in the near future.

There’s reason to believe the megadeals for Ohtani and Soto are unicorns in the baseball world. Both players are uniquely talented, surely, but both also had unusual circumstances propelling their value into the stratosphere.

Ohtani is the greatest two-way player in baseball history, capable of improving any team on both sides of the ball. He’s also the rare baseball player who has true international appeal. His every move ( like his unexpected marriage announcement ) is followed closely in his native Japan, adding another 125 million potential fans who buy merchandise, watch him play and help fill the Dodgers’ coffers.

Then there’s Soto — a four-time All-Star and on-base machine who won a World Series with the Washington Nationals in 2019. The X-factor for him is he became a free agent at the prime age of 26, which is extremely hard to do under current MLB rules.

Players have to be in the big leagues for six years before testing free agency. The precocious Soto debuted at 19 with the Nats, making him part of a rare group of players who reached the highest level of professional baseball as a teenager. That accelerated his free agency timeline.

It’s rare for players to debut that young, and rarer still for them to develop into stars and test the open market the first chance they get. Two recent examples are Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, who both reached free agency in 2019. Machado signed a free-agent record $300 million contract with San Diego, and Harper overtook him days later with a $330 million contract to join the Phillies.

Most players debut in the big leagues from ages 22 to 26, which means free agency comes in their late 20s or early 30s. A typical example is Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is one of this generation’s great players but didn’t hit the market until he was 30.

Judge played three seasons of college baseball for Fresno State before getting drafted by the Yankees in 2013 at age 21 — already two years older than Soto was when he made his MLB debut. It took a few years for the budding superstar to reach the majors, and he was 25 when he had his breakout season in 2018, smashing 52 homers to earn AL Rookie of the Year honors.

By the time he reached free agency after the 2022 season, he had already passed age 30. It’s a major factor that led to him signing a $360 million, nine-year deal with the Yankees, which seems downright reasonable these days after the Ohtani and Soto deals.

Two major trends are colliding that will make it harder for guys like Soto to hit free agency in their mid 20s.

First, MLB teams have been more likely in recent years to take college players early in the draft, betting on more experienced talents. Just 10 high school players were drafted among the top 30 picks in the 2024 draft.

Second, teams are more eager to lock up young, premium talent on long-term deals very early in their careers, well before they hit free agency. Sometimes before they even reach the majors.

Since Soto, just two players have debuted in MLB before their 20th birthday — Elvis Luciano and Junior Caminero. Luciano hasn’t been back to the majors since his 2019 cup of coffee. Caminero is now 21 and has only played in 50 big league games.

Among those that debuted at 20: Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a $340 million, 14-year deal with San Diego in 2021, years before reaching the open market. Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio got an $82 million, eight-year deal before even reaching the big leagues.

Young stars Corbin Carroll ($111 million, eight years with Arizona), Bobby Witt Jr. ($288 million, 11 years with Kansas City) and Julio Rodriguez ($209.3 million, 12 years with Seattle) also got massive guarantees early in their 20s to forgo an early free agency.

The exception and wild card: Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be a 26-year-old free agent next offseason. Guerrero hasn’t been as consistent in his young career as Soto, but a standout 2025 season could position him to threaten Soto’s deal.

More likely is that the player to pass Soto isn’t in the majors yet — and might not even be in pro baseball. When 25-year-old Alex Rodriguez signed his record $252 million, 10-year deal with Texas in 2001, it took over a decade for another player to match that total, when Albert Pujols got $240 million over 10 years from the Angels in 2012.

For many players, passing up life-changing money in their early or mid 20s is too enticing, even if it means that they might not maximize their value on the free agent market later in their careers.

Soto was determined to test the market. He famously turned down a $440 million, 15-year offer to stay with the Washington Nationals in 2022, betting that he could make even more as a free agent.

Not many players would turn down that kind of cash.

Then again, that’s what makes Soto so unique. And it’s also why his $765 million deal could be the industry standard for some time.

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