Every hurricane this season was turbocharged and made more intense than it should have been, study finds
By Rachel Ramirez, CNN
(CNN) — Record-breaking ocean temperatures, fueled by planet-warming pollution, have turbocharged dozens of Atlantic hurricanes over the last few years, making them more potent and dangerous by increasing their wind speeds.
Every hurricane in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was made stronger than it otherwise would have been without human-caused climate change, according to analysis from nonprofit climate research group Climate Central. Wind speeds of the 11 hurricanes were increased by 9 to 28 mph by water that was up to 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer because of climate change.
“Every hurricane in 2024 was stronger than it would have been 100 years ago,” said Daniel Gilford, climate scientist at Climate Central and lead author of the report. “Through record-breaking ocean warming, human carbon pollution is worsening hurricane catastrophes in our communities.”
The analysis built off the scientific framework of a separate analysis from the group released Wednesday and found 84% of hurricanes between 2019 and 2023 were more intense than they would have been without climate change. The wind speeds of the hurricanes were cranked up by an average of 18 mph, which caused 30 of them to go up at least one category higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
The studies’ authors say the new analyses prove how much “human beings have influenced storm intensities.”
At least 90% of warming over the past several decades has taken place in oceans, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Water in the Atlantic where hurricanes roam was at or near-record-breaking levels throughout hurricane season. Hurricanes are feeding off this extra energy, causing them to strengthen and even rapidly intensify more frequently — or have an increase in wind speeds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.
Nine of this season’s 11 hurricanes rapidly intensified and climbed up the hurricane category scale due to climate change-driven ocean heat. Category 5 Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified by 95 mph in just 24 hours, faster than any other storm in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Climate Central researchers also found that human-caused climate change made exceptionally warm ocean temperatures that fueled Milton’s explosion 400 to 800 times more likely. They also found that Milton wouldn’t have reached Category 5.
The researchers found hurricanes Debby and Oscar also would have remained tropical storms instead of turning into hurricanes in a world without planet-warming pollution.
Other scientists not involved in the study agreed with the researchers’ overall finding that that human-caused global warming was intensifying storms, but urged caution around the specific increase in wind speeds, particularly with projecting the influence of global warming on future storms.
“I see this paper as a good way to estimate how multiple anthropogenic factors have increased hurricane intensities in the Atlantic, but I do not think that these estimates can be projected into the future,” said Jim Kossin, a hurricane expert and retired NOAA climate scientist.
Kossin said he’s not confident that future increases in climate change-fueled ocean warming will directly lead to hurricanes becoming stronger at the same rate as they have in the past. This is because ocean temperatures are influenced by various factors other than carbon pollution, and the impact of temperature changes on hurricanes could differ in the future.
Still, climate experts say one thing is certain: as global temperatures continue to rise, the potential for more powerful and destructive hurricanes like the ones that formed in the Atlantic this year becomes increasingly likely.
The-CNN-Wire
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