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Mid Week Monsoon Check

The great monsoonal high continues to dominate the weather of the American Southwest. Acting as a pump, moisture streams in from the tropics, generating showers and thunderstorms. Here on the California coast, we are usually too far to the west to feel many of these impacts. However, occasionally surges of moisture reach our area as well. As the ridge moves westward over the next few days, we’ll see an increase in monsoonal moisture and an increase in inland temperatures. Due to the normally stable nature of our atmospheric environment, it’s hard to get any showers or thunderstorms going, even with the monsoonal moisture acting as fuel. We’ll be on the watch for small-scale disturbances that could help trigger this activity. One of which will float in from the east late Wednesday into Thursday AM bringing the chance for an isolated shower or two, mainly over the eastern half of our coverage area. Not much rain would likely reach the ground and there is also an outside chance for lightning.

The monsoonal moisture will hang around through the weekend, so we’ll be watching for additional storm potential.


Wednesday: Morning low clouds, then partial clearing on the coast during the afternoon. Coastal highs in the 60s to around 70ºF. Sunny inland with mainly 80s-90s with winds picking up in the valleys in the afternoon. Some mid to high level clouds moving in late with a chance for a light shower into Thursday morning.

Overnight: Following the midnight hour, we'll see increased chances of light isolated showers in easternmost San Benito and Santa Clara counties. Models are indicative of potential for dry lightning strikes in these same areas. Possible storms are likely to be very fast moving, and should be well to the north of us by dawn. Meanwhile, expect low cloud cover and light drizzle closer to the coast.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles early, then partial clearing around the coast and mostly sunny skies inland. Coastal highs in the 60s-70s with mainly 70s-90s inland. Winds pick up for the valleys in the afternoon/evening.

Extended: Monsoon moisture sticks around through the weekend, but it will be elevated over our marine layer. Expect seasonable to slightly cool temperatures on the coast with our normal daily cycle of low cloud and seasonable to slightly warm temperatures inland with mostly sunny skies. Each day carries a 10% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Stay tuned to the forecast.

This week's normal temperatures:

LOW: 55ºF
HIGH: 69ºF

LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 86ºF


-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for August 3rd – 9th  calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation.

*Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Weak La Niña into the Fall

-Area drought status: “
Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. The southeastern third of San Benito County has been upgraded to “Exceptional Drought”

Article Topic Follows: Local Forecast
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Courtney Aitken


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