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Dry January Continues


A blocking ridge of high pressure will remain on guard duty for the next week plus. Weather systems will continue to be directed well to our north, leaving us high and dry. In the meantime, we’ll be observing more subtle changes like a switch to stronger onshore flow on Monday. This will cool coastal areas and also introduce higher humidity to the Colorado Fire. It will be short-lived, however, with dry offshore winds returning on Tuesday. High temperatures will likely remain at or above normal for the next 7-10 days. On weak system may slip under the ridge Friday which at the moment looks like an increase in clouds for us but will have to be watched. Beyond that, there are some indications the pattern may break in the first week of February allowing for the return of rain.  

Air Quality: GOOD to MODERATE
 --may be locally worse near the Colorado Fire

Colorado Fire Weather Forecast: Any smoke from the fire will push south along the coast, especially during the afternoon hours and into Monday. Deeper northwesterly onshore winds expected on Monday which will carry higher moisture levels to the higher elevations. Dryer offshore winds return Tuesday, but won’t be all that strong.

Monday: Clear skies for most of the day with some low cloudcover/fog possible on the south/east shores of the bay late. Cooler, with breezy northwesterly onshore winds in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s on the coast and low to mid 60s inland.

*Beach Hazards Statement from the National Weather Service*

through Monday 1pm.

  • Risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
  • Northwest swell of 3 to 6 feet at 17 to 20 seconds
  • Coastal North Bay, including Point Reyes National  Seashore, Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast, San Francisco Peninsula Coast, San Francisco and Northern Monterey Bay.
  • Long lulls are typical between hazardous sneakers waves and the ocean may appear relatively calm for up to 30 minutes between larger waves.

Overnight: Fog will likely develop on the Monterey Peninsula, and is possible for the majority of the immediate coastline around Monterey Bay. Onshore breezes continue through the night and will be potentially gusty after dark. Expect another chilly evening with lower 30s possible inland and high 30s to low 40s at the coast.

Tuesday: Morning low clouds on the coast, then becoming sunny. Offshore winds develop in the afternoon, but may not be soon enough to warm coastal areas. It looks like we’ll see slightly below normal highs (upper 50s to low 60s on the coast) but seasonable conditions inland.  
Extended: Tranquil conditions through Thursday with seasonable to slightly warm highs but chilly nights. Clouds will increase with a passing system on Friday, but it looks dry at the moment. I expect the weekend to be mostly sunny and mild.

This week's normal temperatures:

LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 62ºF

LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF


-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 31st – February 6th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast into Winter: Weak La Niña

-Area drought status: “
Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area southern Monterey County now reduced to “Moderate Drought”

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Courtney Aitken


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