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Warm with Elevated Fire Danger

Air Quality (as of 7:30AM)
GOOD for all reporting stations

Flow turns offshore in the wake of Sunday’s cold front. This will likely lead to warmer, sunnier, and dry conditions as we head into the work week. Fire danger increases, especially to our north where offshore winds will be stronger through the morning hours. Eventually, low level flow switched back onshore by mid-week, cooling off coastal areas. There is uncertainty late in the week as a cut-off area of low pressure tries to sneak into southern California. Its eventual position could mean a lot of different things for our area.

… for the DIABLO RANGE in Santa Clara County
… through 8 pm Monday

Dry northerly offshore winds will push into the Napa hills around 11 pm Sunday night and then gradually spread over the North and East Bay hills. The initial burst of winds will occur while humidity values remain fairly moist. However the dry offshore winds will begin a rapid drying of the atmosphere with humidity values dropping quickly by Monday morning. Continued moderate offshore winds on Monday as humidity values drop into the teens. Offshore winds will ease by sunset Monday night. Little or no humidity recovery Monday night into Tuesday morning but with only light offshore winds.

Initial burst of gusty offshore winds overnight to mid-morning Monday.  Drier conditions but lighter winds Monday daytime. Offshore winds ease Monday night with continued poor humidity recovery.

-Winds northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Local gusts up to 50 mph over the highest peaks.

- Humidity initially 30-45% tonight drying to 15-30% on Monday with little or no recovery Monday night.

Any fire starts would likely see rapid spread due to dry fuels, low humidity and gusty winds in areas that did not receive wetting rains over the last 24 hours.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Monday: Sunny and warm with highs in the 70s-80s on the coast and 80s to low 90s inland. A light sea breeze will kick in in the afternoon.

Overnight: Another predominantly clear night even on the coast; light winds for higher elevations. Coastal areas may see some light cloud cover in the early hours of Tuesday morning, but nothing major.

Tuesday: Another sunny and warm(er) day with the possibility of some coastal fog late. Expect highs in the 70s-80s on the coast and 80s-90s inland.

Extended: Temps will begin to cool on Wednesday and will likely stay seasonable through the end of the week. There is forecast uncertainty once Saturday rolls around. Stay tuned.

This week's normal temperatures:

LOW: 54ºF
HIGH: 72ºF
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 85ºF


-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for September 27th – October 3rd  calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Watch

-Area drought status: “
Extreme Drought” for the entire viewing area with the far southeastern corner of Monterey County and far eastern San Benito County considered “Exceptional Drought”

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Courtney Aitken


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