Mother’s Day Wind & Fire
WEATHER STORY
High pressure builds back in and temperatures will be warmer on Saturday. But the pattern will amplify with a deeper trough developing over the interior of the western US through the weekend. We’ll be caught in between, which will likely lead to fairly seasonable weather but also windy conditions at times. The weather is expected to remain dry with the exception of any misty drizzle we can pull out of the low clouds.
FORECAST & ALERTS
***RED FLAG WARNING***
… for the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County from 11PM tonight through 6AM Monday.
… for offshore winds and lowering humidity. A moderate early season offshore wind event will develop this weekend. This will occur as fuels are near record dry levels after a very dry winter. The initial burst of dry offshore winds will reach the Napa county hills around 11 pm Friday night and then spread across the East Bay overnight into early Saturday. These winds will usher in much drier air along with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph above 2000 feet. On Saturday breezy north winds will continue as temperatures warm well into the 80s with humidity values lowering into the teens and single digits. This pattern will help to rapidly dry out the fine fuels through the weekend. There may be some moderate humidity recovery Saturday night but warm and dry weather persists Sunday with continued dry northerly winds and warm temperatures that will allow for rapid fire spread on any new ignitions, especially in the grass and dry brush.
-Northerly winds 15 to 30 mph gusts 40 to 50 mph except locally to 60 mph above 2500 feet.
-Lowering 20-30 percent by Saturday morning then dropping 10-20% Saturday and Sunday afternoon with only moderate night time recovery.
-High temperatures into the 80s and lower 90s Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
-New ignitions will see rapid fire growth.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Saturday: Sunny and warmer with highs in the 60s to low 70s on the coast and 70s-80s inland. Breezy at times.
Overnight: Clear and slightly cool with lows mainly in the 40s. A few southern inland valleys may dip into the 30s. Northerly winds over the hills.
Sunday (Mother’s Day): Mostly sunny with passing high clouds. Low clouds possible on the coast late. Slightly cooler, with highs in the 60s to low 70s on the coast and 70s-80s inland. Breezy to windy at times for most areas.
Extended: Expect seasonable to slightly warm temperatures for the majority of next week under mostly sunny skies. We’ll see a few low clouds on the coast and breezy conditions in the valleys in the afternoons.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 48ºF
HIGH: 65ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 75ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 15th – May 21st calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Weak La Niña
-Forecast into Summer: Neutral
-Area drought status: “Extreme Drought” for Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties, along with northern Monterey and northern San Benito. The remainder of Monterey & San Benito Counties are in “Severe Drought”
