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Sneaker Wave Threat

Air Quality Report (As of 6:45pm)
Good for all reporting areas.


Weather Story:
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the West for the next week, blocking weather systems from reaching our coast with any life left. One system will approach overnight, but it is already falling apart and will have no impact on our area outside of a few extra high clouds and slightly cooler inland highs Thursday. High pressure strengthens with light offshore flow Friday/Saturday, then we’ll be on the back side of a system digging south across the Rockies—further drying out our region. Models are keeping us dry until at least the 11th, but I think it may be a bit longer before the pattern changes enough to allow a wet system in.

From the National Weather Service in Monterey:
*Beach Hazards Statement*

… for the immediate coast of Monterey County and the immediate “North Coast” of Santa Cruz County from through 4 PM Thursday evening. The north shore of Monterey Bay is not included.

Very Long Period Swell will bring Dangerous Sneaker Waves...
A very long period WNW swell will impact the Sonoma to Big Sur coast through the day on Wednesday and persist into Thursday. Initial forerunner waves of 24 to 27 seconds will begin to arrive along the Sonoma coast overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before spreading southward through the day. The primary timeframe of concern from this event will be midday Wednesday into Thursday morning as the wave heights rise to 3 to 7 feet at a periodicity of 19 to 24 seconds. A high to extreme risk of sneaker waves will exist during this timeframe. The largest energetic sneaker waves will arrive irregularly every few minutes to as infrequently as once every 30 minutes during otherwise deceptively calmer seas and consequently may catch those on coastal jetties, rocks, piers, or shorelines off guard and may injure them or knock them into the cold, turbulent ocean. Beachcombing is not advised during this timeframe. In addition, strong rip currents will accompany the energetic wave train, particularly at WNW facing beaches. These type of events claim lives each year along our coast so extreme vigilance is advised if visiting the coast. Finally, moderate to locally large breaking waves of 14 to 18 feet will be possible later in the day on Thursday at WNW facing beaches as the swell period decreases and swell heights increase, thus this product will be in effect through the day Thursday.

A very long period WNW swell with initial periods in excess of 20 seconds will bring a threat of dangerous sneaker waves to area beaches. Enhanced strength of rip currents and moderate to large breaking waves at the end of the event.

The main impacts will be felt at W-WNW beaches.

Potential sneaker waves will create dangerous conditions at area beaches. Steep beaches will have a higher risk of sneaker wave activity with greater wave run-up onto beaches. Occasionally larger waves will also wash over jetties and rock outcroppings that normally stay dry.

A Beach Hazard Statement for sneaker waves means that conditions are present to support an increased danger of unsuspecting beach goers being swept into the sea by a wave. People walking along the beach should never turn their back to the sea. Fisherman should
avoid fishing from rocks or jetties. Beachcombing is not advised.

Overnight: A few high clouds, otherwise mostly clear and cool with coastal lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s and upper 20s to upper 30s inland.

Thursday: Scattered high clouds early, then becoming mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through and a few low clouds near the coast. Slightly cooler, with coastal highs in the low to mid 60s and mid 60s to low 70s inland.

Friday: A chilly morning, then mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through and a few low clouds near the coast. Slightly warmer with coastal highs in the 60s and upper 60s to low 70s inland.

Extended: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies continue on Saturday and Sunday with seasonable to slightly warm highs and seasonable to slightly cool lows. Further warming possible early next week as winds shift offshore. Conditions will remain quite dry.


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This week's normal temperatures:

--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 36ºF
HIGH: 63ºF

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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 10th – 16th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation. 
 
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Weak La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory

-Area drought status: 
Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties and the far eastern side of San Benito County, Abnormally dry for all other areas.

Article Topic Follows: Local Forecast

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Dann Cianca

Dann Cianca is the chief meteorologist at KION News Channel 5/46.

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