Preparing for the next big one; guidance from the USGS
SALINAS, Calif. (KION-TV) -- In light of a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that struck Northern California early December, followed by hundreds of aftershocks and even another 5.8 quake not too far from the border, people have earth shaking on the mind.
"We cannot predict earthquakes but we can understand what the hazards are over longer periods of time based on how frequently these earthquakes have occurred in the distant past," said Curtis Baden, a scientist at USGS in San Jose. "When I say distant pass, I'm talking about over the last few thousand years."
Baden says that depending on where the geographical area is, will determine what he calls the "recurrence interval."
"For example, there's a very large earthquake in Hayward in 1868... it has been about 150 years since that earthquake occurred, and the recurrence interval historically for the Hayward earthquake is about 160 years, plus or minus a few," said Baden.
Baden says that if scientists are following that model in the Hayward area, a large earthquake taking place in there current times isn't unrealistic.
"In the Bay Area over the next 30 years, there is a greater than two in three chance that we will experience above a magnitude 6.7," he said.
The last large quake to shake the area was the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake that rattled homes and businesses along the Central Coast on October 17 at 5:04 p.m. It had a 6.9 magnitude measurement, based on what scientists used to use for earthquake measurement, the now archaic Richter scale.
Regarding aftershocks, Baden says that they are not only common, but expected, especially after a large quake.
"There's a 5% chance that there might be an earthquake that follows that is larger," he said.
Baden says that people need to be prepared before an earthquake hits and not try and scramble to get things ready after the fact.
"We need to be prepared. You should have your earthquake kits ready [and] know the proper protocols to protect yourself and your family when an earthquake will happen, because it will," he said.
