Major Winter Storm Arrives Overnight

A potent storm system will move across the Monterey Bay Area into Thursday brining heavy, flooding rains; gusty, damaging winds; and eventually dangerously high surf. Moderate rain (heavy in the coastal mountains) will persist into Thursday morning, enhanced by the cold front around 6AM or so. Street flooding is likely in many cities around the bay. Streams in the mountains will approach their banks. Small slides are possible. Winds will also increase along and ahead of the front, peaking with frontal passage. Power outages possible in coastal and mountain areas. Showers and gusty winds will persist through the rest of the day with a chance of thunderstorms. Additional downpours and damaging wind gusts possible. Waterspouts can’t be ruled out.

Air Quality: Good

***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect until 3AM Friday.

*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas of 6-11ft expected

… for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect until 3AM Friday.

*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas of 8-13ft expected.

... for the Monterey Bay in effect from 9PM Wednesday to 3AM Friday

*Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 10 ft
expected.

*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.

**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of Santa Cruz County mainly between Highway 17 and Highway 152 extended until 5AM
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- - At 132 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have
fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Corralitos, Capitola, Live Oak, Aptos, Rio Del Mar, Eureka Canyon Road, Brown Valley Road, Amesti, Freedom, Uvas Canyon Park, Soquel, Interlaken, Opal Cliffs, Twin Lakes, Day Valley, Aptos Hills-Larkin Valley and Aptos Hills-Larkin.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of Monterey County west of US 101and south of Carmel Valley in effect until 4:30AM

*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- At 127 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen.
 - Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 10 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Arroyo Seco, Lucia, Tassajara Hot Springs, Gorda, Jamesburg, Big Sur Village, Gonzales, Colman Canyon, Sycamore Flat, Esalen Institute, Julia Pfeiffer Burns State Park, Partington Ridge, Cachagua Near The Los Padres Dam, Pico Blanco Campground and Andrew Molera State Park.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of Northern Monterey, Northwestern San Benito, South Santa Clara and Southeastern Santa Cruz Counties in effect until 4:15AM Thursday

*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- At 117 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.2 and 0.5 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Salinas, Watsonville, Gilroy, Hollister, Seaside, Monterey, Marina, Pacific Grove, Carmel-By-The-Sea, Carmel Valley Village, Boronda, Spreckels, Prunedale, Castroville, Chualar, Moss Landing, Interlaken, Ridgemark, San Clemente Dam and Del Monte Forest.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for Santa Cruz County west of a line from Santa Cruz to the Summit extended until 4:30AM Thursday

*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
 
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- At 104 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.3 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
 
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...  Palo Alto, Santa Cruz, Cupertino, Saratoga, Los Gatos, Scotts Valley, Los Altos Hills, Woodside, Boulder Creek, Ben Lomond,
Felton, Portola Valley, Monte Sereno and Lexington Hills.
 

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of South Santa Clara County from San Martin northward I neffect until 3AM Thursday.

*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

- At 1158 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.3 and 0.8 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

- Some locations that will experience flooding include... San Jose, Fremont, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Mountain View, Milpitas, Palo Alto, Cupertino, Campbell, Morgan Hill, Menlo Park, Saratoga, Los Gatos, Los Altos, East Palo Alto, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Seven Trees and Sunol-Midtown.
 
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.


*FLOOD WATCH*
… in effect through Saturday evening for Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties

*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

*Heavy rain and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.

Unsettled wet weather expected to resume tonight into Wednesday leading to an increased flooding potential as the next Atmospheric River moves in. This next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Area rivers, streams and creeks that are prone to rapid rises will bring additional flooding concerns to the Central Coast where the heaviest rainfall is likely within the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Overnight: Stormy conditions. Overcast, with widespread moderate/heavy rain and gusty, damaging winds through the morning hours. Mild lows in the 40s and 50s across the region.***HIGH WIND WARNING***
…for coastal Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties and the Santa Cruz Mountains in effect from 3AM Thursday until 10AM Friday

*Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. Isolated gusts up to 80 mph possible in the higher elevation.

*Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, and result in property damage. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees.
 
People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind.

**WIND ADVISORY**
…for interior Monterey County, San Benito County, and the Santa Clara Valley and Diablos in South Santa Clara County in effect from 3AM Thursday until 10AM Friday.

*Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible in the higher elevation.

*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
 
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.



Thursday: Heavy rain and gusty winds early, then  breaking to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into the afternoon. Gusty southwesterly winds weaken slightly, but persist into the evening. Wind damage, which could include property damage, blocked roads, and power outages looking likely early in the day. Street flooding likely with high water levels in coastal mountain streams. Major rivers will not flood. Highs in the 50s to low 60s.

***HIGH SURF WARNING***
… in effect from 3PM Thursday to 3AM Saturday for coastal Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties including the Monterey Bay.

*Dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 ft and up to 45 ft for the highest waves on west facing beaches. Non-west facing beaches will see 15 to 20 ft waves and up to 30 ft peak waves.

*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.

Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.

Friday (Valentine’s Day): Mostly cloudy with scattered shower early, then becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers. Showers ending by mid-afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Breezy.

Extended: We’ll warm back up a bit into the weekend with pleasant conditions expected. However, a weak system will clip us late Sunday and that could bring a few rain drops to the area. Warmer, drier weather expected for much of next week.

*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 39ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 20^th - February 26^th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for eastern San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County. Abnormally dry for the remainder of the viewing area.
 Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 12^th 54.3ºF (avg of 8 buoys)
[February Avg. SST: 54.9ºF]