Heavy Rain Likely, Damaging Winds Possible
Heavy rain likely, damaging winds possible into Tuesday. An atmospheric river accompanied by a potent cold front will move through the region Tuesday. Two separate moisture plumes combine over our area into Tuesday morning, stalling over the region. Continuous moderate to briefly heavy rain will raise flooding concerns in the coastal mountains. Dry conditions over the last month will ease concerns, but minor flooding, especially of streets and low areas is likely. Flooding of creeks is possible. Southerly winds will be gusty at times throughout the day, likely peaking with frontal passage early Tuesday evening. The front may appear as a “narrow cold frontal rainband” with embedded thunderstorms/heavy rain/wind gusts/brief circulations.
Preliminary rainfall estimates through Tuesday evening:
Coastal Mountains: 4-8”
Santa Cruz Coast: 1.5-3”
Monterey Peninsula/Salinas: 1-2”
Northern Inland Valleys: 1.5-3”
Southern Inland Valleys: 0.5”-1.5”
Air Quality: Good
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect until 9AM Tuesday
-Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties in effect from Monday afternoon until late Tuesday night.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
*The next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Monday into Tuesday which will bring additional flooding concerns to the Central Coast where the heaviest rainfall is likely within the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Overnight: Overcast with moderate to briefly heavy rain slowly spreading from northwest to southeast across the Monterey Bay Area. Gusty southerly winds at times. Lows in the 50s on the coast and 40s for inland valleys.
***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect from 3AM Tuesday until 9PM Tuesday
*South winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7 to 11 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the north coast of Santa Cruz County in effect from 7AM Tuesday until 11PM Tuesday
*South to southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
… and for Monterey, San Benito, South Santa Clara, Santa Cruz Counties in effect from 7AM Tuesday until 11PM Tuesday
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Tuesday: Widespread rain, heavy at times in the coastal mountains. Street flooding and flooding of low areas very possible. Minor creek/stream flooding possible. Gusty southerly winds at times with isolated wind damage possible, peaking late afternoon ahead and along the cold front. Slight chance of a thunderstorm with enhanced winds/embedded circulations possible with frontal passage. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
***STORM WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 9AM Tuesday until 9PM Tuesday
-South winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 11 ft expected.
*Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
***GALE WARNING***
…for Monterey Bay in effect from 9AM Tuesday until 9PM Tuesday
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 10 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
Wednesday: A few showers linger across the south, otherwise partly cloudy. Breezy northwesterly winds on the exposed coast. Highs in the 50s. Extended: A trailing system will be here on Thursday and could bring briefly heavy rain and gusty winds once again. This is a fast-moving system, but also a cold one. Mountain snow will be possible on the backside into Friday morning. Skies clear out for the weekend which will likely mean COLD mornings with frost being a concern.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 11th – 17th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for the eastern valleys of San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County, abnormally dry for the rest of the KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 4th : 54.0ºF (avg of 8 buoys) [January Average: 54.9ºF]
