Storm Systems Lined Up
****THIS PAGE MAY HAVE OUTDATED INFORMATION, PLEASE HEAD BACK TO THE KION546.COM/WEATHER MAIN PAGE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST & ALERTS***
The next storm system will come blasting through the area Saturday morning with heavy rain for the coastal mountains and moderate to briefly heavy rain for the lower elevations. Gusty winds will also accompany the front in the morning hours. We may get some brief clearing around mid-day to be followed by rounds of showers and thunderstorms into the evening. We’ll then get another brief break into early Sunday before the NEXT system arrives late in the day. This one will be lighter initially but could bring more moderate to heavy rain into early Monday as it passes through. Like the previous systems over the past week or two, impacts will be cumulative since they are so close together which will lead to flooding risks once again. Weaker systems then take aim at us into next week with a higher probability of dryer weather late in the week and beyond.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***FLOOD WARNING***
… for low areas along Pacheco Creek in effect until 9:30PM Saturday.
*Urban area and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall and runoff is expected.
*Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding. Low-water crossings are inundated
with water and may not be passable. Expect many areas of slow moving or standing water. It will take several hours for all the water from these storms to work through local drainage systems in
urban areas.
- At 328 PM PST, Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen in the last 12 hours.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 0.1 to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...Lovers Lane, San Felipe Road and low lying areas near and around Dunneville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
***FLOOD WARNING***
… for Carmel River from Saturday afternoon until further notice.
*Minor flooding is forecast.
* IMPACTS...At 8.5 feet, Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to flood. Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to flooding.
- At 12:15 PM PST Saturday the stage was 8.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise over flood stage of 8.5 feet this afternoon.
- Flood stage is 8.5 feet.
***FLOOD WARNING***
For areas near the San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz County. In effect now until 9:00pm Saturday.
*Urban area and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding. Streams continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.
- At 551 PM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gaugesindicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Santa Cruz, Felton, Ben Lomond and Boulder Creek.
- Some locations that will experience flooding includes, Santa Cruz, Felton, Ben Lomond and Boulder Creek and areas along the San Lorenzo River.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
***FLOOD WARNING***
… for Corralitos Creek in Santa Cruz County until 6:15PM Saturday.
*Urban area and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall and runoff is expected.
*Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. Low-water crossings may be inundated with water and may not be passable.
- At 1210 PM PST, Gauge reports indicate flooding is occurring or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen in the last 6 hours.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... areas along the Corralitos Creek.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**FLOOD WARNING***
… for the Salinas River from around Soledad to Monterey Bay from now until further notice
Minor flooding is occurring for the Salinas River near Spreckels.
*At 19.0 feet, Lowland agricultural areas will have minor flooding.
At 23.0 feet, A few homes near the Salinas River along the reach of the river gauge will begin to flood. River Road near Spreckels will have minor flooding.
At 24.0 feet, The lowest areas of agricultural land along the lower portions of the Salinas River will have significant flooding. River Road will have moderate flooding. Spreckels Boulevard will begin to flood.
- At 9:00 AM PST Saturday, January 14 the stage was 22.56 feet.
- Recent Activity...The river stage has fallen below Minor Flood stage however flooding impacts continue and will persist through the weekend and into early next week.
- Forecast...The river is expected to slowly and gradually recede through the weekend and into early next week.
- Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.8 feet on 02/26/1969.
Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Even 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock you off your feet and a depth of 2 feet will float your car. Never try to walk, swim, or drive through such swift water. If you come upon flood waters, stop, turn around and go another way.
The next statement will be issued by Friday morning at 345 AM PST.
***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties including Monterey Bay in effect until 9PM Saturday.
*Southwest winds 15 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7 to 15 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for Santa Cruz County extended to 8:30pm Saturday.
*Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall and runoff continues.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams. Overflowing poor drainage areas. River or stream flows are elevated. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
- At 617 PM PST, Doppler radar and automated stream gauges indicate minor flooding is already occuring and periods of moderate rain are expected. This is causing urban and small
stream flooding. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen over the last 12 hours.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 0.1 to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Corralitos, Scotts Valley, Capitola, Live Oak, Felton, Ben Lomond, Soquel, Twin Lakes, Aptos, Boulder Creek, Rio Del Mar, Eureka Canyon Road, Brown Valley Road, Freedom, Amesti, Interlaken, Lexington Hills and Day Valley.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect until 9AM Monday.
*Minor coastal flooding expected.
*Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected.
*The combination of high tidal cycles, onshore winds, heavy runoff and continued rainfall will likely lead to coastal flooding in locations prone to tidal flooding.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire Central Coast and KION viewing area including Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Benito County. In effect through Monday evening.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain.
- Unsettled wet weather will continue behind the cold front that is passing over the region today. Pre-existing saturated soils will not be able to absorb excess rainfall. Urban and small stream flooding is expected along with continued flood potential on mainstem rivers through the weekend. After a brief lull early Sunday another storm will bring more rain later Sunday into Monday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Saturday: Moderate to heavy rain early, then scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Several inches of rain likely in the coastal mountains with minor flooding problems. Southerly winds will be gusty at times. Temperatures below seasonable, mainly in the 50s to around 60ºF.
Extended: Rain chances continue through at least Wednesday, but calmer and drier weather is expected late next week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 17th – 23rd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Weak La Niña continues through winter, becomes neutral by Spring
-Area drought status: Extreme drought (D3) for southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties, Severe drought (D2) for the Salinas Valley to the bay and northern San Benito County, Moderate drought (D1) for Santa Cruz County and the coast and coastal mountains of Monterey County
