Winter-Like Storm
A winter-like storm system will move into our area on Sunday bringing wind and rain to the region. This type of storm is not common for September, so some areas may receive record daily rainfall Sunday/Monday. I’d expect this kind of weather as early as late October, but usually in November. The system itself tapped into some typhoon moisture as it developed in the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday/Friday. A strong northerly jet stream is helping strengthen it along the coast but the low is likely to stall offshore into the early workweek. With that said, the initial warm and cold frontal system will arrive on Sunday, then stall over our area into Monday AM. The winds will be strongest on Sunday afternoon as the system stalls, then slowly taper off. Stranded here, the initial boundary will lose some strength Monday, but additional rounds of showers are likely. With the proximity to the low, we may even see more showers on Tuesday. High pressure will then build in by next weekend with warmer weather expected.
AIR QUALITY: GOOD
*WIND ADVISORY*
… for Santa Cruz County and the Santa Cruz Mountains into Santa Clara County along with coastal areas of Monterey County in effect from 6AM Sunday until 4AM Monday.
-Southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
-Downed limbs and trees with likely power outages. Sand and blowing debris along Highway 1.
A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Sunday: Overcast with rain slowly spreading from west to east across the viewing area. Most Monterey Bay cities will see rain initiating between 8AM and noon (west to east). Rain could be moderate to heavy at times in the coastal mountains and will remain light to moderate on the coast and for inland valleys. Winds will peak mid-afternoon and will be strongest on the exposed coast and ridges of the coastal ranges. Some valley wind funneling is also likely. Rain will continue into the evening with some breaks. Highs in the 60s across most of Santa Cruz County and 70s elsewhere except for south-facing coastal locations.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain and occasionally gusty conditions. Lows in the 50s to low 60s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rounds of showers into the afternoon. Southerly winds remain gusty, but not damaging. Highs in the 60s-70s.
Extended: Showers could linger into Tuesday, but then, dryer, warmer conditions are slowly expected to develop.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 54ºF
HIGH: 72ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 85ºF
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for September 25th – October 1st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation.
*Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Weak La Niña into the Winter
-Area drought status: “Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. The southeastern third of San Benito County has been upgraded to “Exceptional Drought”
