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The Monsoon Pendulum Swings

The great monsoonal high has shifted east for the weekend leaving our area in weak, but dry southwesterly flow aloft. A trough of low pressure remains positioned off the West Coast, its proximity taking the weight off and deepening our marine layer. This deep marine layer has led to cooler inland temperatures. On the coast, deeper mixing within the layer can lead to warmer temperatures and less cloudcover—which was the case this weekend.

The ridge will then rebuild over the Four Corners Region Monday into Tuesday, sending a plume of monsoon moisture westward into Southern California. It looks like the trough off the coast will then direct this plume north toward Central California late Monday into Tuesday and will have to be watched, but as of now it looks like the plume may stay a bit to our east.


Monday: Mostly sunny. Coastal highs in the 60s-70s with upper 70s to around 100ºF inland. Expect the usual valley summer winds in the afternoon and early evening but also breezy northwesterly winds on the coast at times.

Overnight: Mostly clear to start with a slow increase of low clouds for the coast and major valleys—though they’ll remain spotty even by dawn. Expect lows in the 50s for most areas with 60s up in the higher eastern valleys in San Benito County.

Tuesday: Monsoon moisture will stream by to our east, but at the moment it looks like outside of some high clouds, we’ll stay clear of any precipitation/lightning. Otherwise, expect our normal daily cycle of low clouds at the coast with only a few lingering on the south side of the bay in the afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly warm with upper 60s to upper 70s on the coast and upper 70s to upper 90s inland. Becoming windy for inland valleys in the afternoon and evening and breezy on the coast at times.

Extended:  Dryer air returns through the end of the week, though we’ll be on the outer edge of the monsoon plume. Temperatures remain seasonable to slightly warm through the weekend.

This week's normal temperatures:

LOW: 55ºF
HIGH: 70ºF

LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 86ºF


-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for August 15th – 21st  calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation.

*Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory

- Forecast: Weak La Niña into the Fall

-Area drought status: “
Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. The southeastern third of San Benito County has been upgraded to “Exceptional Drought”

Article Topic Follows: Weather Authority
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Dann Cianca

Dann Cianca is the chief meteorologist at KION News Channel 5/46.


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