Big Storm Coming
Air Quality Report (As of 1:00AM)
Good for all reporting areas.
Weather Story: A few showers will linger in the coastal mountains overnight in the wake of Sunday’s storm system as cold air continues to push over the relatively warm waters of the ocean. The next, stronger system will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This is a slower-moving system packed with moisture. Ahead of it, southerly winds will increase and rain will increase in the coastal mountains. A strong cold front will come accompanied by heavy rain and gusty winds early Wednesday morning. Rainfall rates will put pressure on burn scars leading to the possibility of debris flows. The main threat will press south later in the morning Wednesday, focusing more on Monterey County. Some model solutions show this frontal band either stalling over Monterey County or pushing back north out of SLO County after its initial passage. This repeated exposure could mean significant rainfall amounts for our coastal hills--especially the Santa Lucias. Those planning to travel Highway 1 down the Big Sur Coast Wednesday into Thursday should make alternate plans. Most of the viewing area will see an inch of rain plus, but totals could approach a foot in the Santa Lucias. Debris flows around burn scars will be a good possibility, so if you live on or near a scar, make sure you have a plan in place to stay safe. Additional rainfall possible beyond Thursday as several, weaker systems take aim on the West Coast.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***GALE WARNING***
… for Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas out to 10nm through 3AM Tuesday.
Northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet at 13 seconds expected.
Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Overnight: Partly cloudy with a few rain & snow showers continuing mainly over the Santa Lucia Range. Snow levels drop to 2,000ft. Cold air will fill valleys and low areas which will mean frost for low areas and potentially icy roads. Expect lows in the 30s to low 40s for the coast and upper 20s to 30s for inland valleys.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***FREEZE WARNING***
… for the southern Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco, and San Antonio Valley
… for the Santa Clara Valley
… from 2AM Tuesday until 8AM Tuesday.
Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected.
Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-ground pipes to protect them from freezing.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy early, then increasing clouds. Cool, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. A few spots on the south side of Monterey Bay may reach the mid 50s. Winds switch to the south and then increase into the evening. Light rain will begin in the afternoon for the coastal mountains and then become a moderate steady rain late.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the coastal mountains of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties and the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County from 4pm Tuesday through 4pm Thursday.
-A moderate atmospheric river will impact the region Tuesday through Thursday bringing prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain along with gusty south winds. The brunt of the storm is forecast to occur between Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
- High confidence that thresholds for debris flows will be met for the following 2020 burn scars: CZU, SCU, Carmel/River, and Dolan. For non-burn scar areas, there could be rapid ponding of water in urban areas, and low lying areas with poor drainage. We also cannot rule out slides or wash outs in areas of steep terrain.
If you live near or on a burn scar: make sure you are signed up for your county's reverse 911 or other alert system and have a "go bag" ready. Monitor the weather for forecast updates and heed local official orders.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains and Northern Monterey Bay from 7PM Tuesday until 7AM Wednesday.
South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected, locally up to 70 mph in southwest facing slopes and coastal areas.
… for the Santa Lucia Range/Los Padres National Forecast, Southern Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast from 7PM Tuesday until 1PM Wednesday
-South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected, locally up to 70 mph in southwest facing slopes and coastal areas.
Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
**Wind Advisory**
… for Santa Clara County from 7PM Tuesday until 7AM Wednesday
… for the San Benito County and the inland valleys and mountains of Monterey County from 7PM Tuesday until 1PM Wednesday.
-South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected, locally in excess of 60 mph in the ridges and peaks.
Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
*Storm Watch*
… for Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos California out to 10 nm from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
-South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55kt and seas 11 to 16 feet at 13 seconds possible.
… for Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas out to 10 nm from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
-South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 60 kt and seas 12 to 16 feet at 14 seconds possible.
… for Monterey Bay from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
-South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 9 to 13 feet at 14 seconds possible.
Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate.
Extended: A strong cold front will move through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with a period of heavy rain and potentially damaging winds, especially for exposed coastal areas. Rainfall rates may cause hydrological issues for burn scars. The cold front will then sweep to the south through late morning on Wednesday. It will then likely stall somewhere in our southern mountains or perhaps on the southern Central Coast. Rainfall totals may vary wildly depending on the stall point and how far north it undulates after it stalls. Even if it doesn’t make it back to our viewing area, showers will continue to pile into the area into Thursday. This is a warmer, moist air mass and temperatures will likely increase slightly—we’re talking upper 50s instead of low 50s. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast, so please stay tuned to my updates. Beyond the Wednesday/Thursday system, the weather will remain unsettled, but not quite as stormy through the weekend.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 2nd – 8th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Moderate La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought most of our viewing area. A small slice of southeastern Santa Clara and northeastern San Benito Counties are considered to be in Severe Drought.
