The Warm Winds of Winter
Air Quality Report (As of 6:00pm)
Good to moderate for all reporting areas.
Weather Story: We will begin the transition from high pressure dominated warm, dry weather to a more active, wet weather pattern as we head into the work week. High pressure will begin to ease back to the west, allowing for dry weather systems to sneak in from the north. The first of these will move through during the day on Monday. Offshore winds will strengthen briefly ahead of it and then even more so behind it into early Tuesday. While it will bring a much cooler air mass into the region, downsloping offshore winds will make for another very warm day on Monday. Temperatures will fall on Tuesday but will remain warm for this time of year. The air will also be very dry which will lead to fire weather concerns over our southern mountains. See below for wind/fire alerts.
A stronger, wetter trough of low pressure will dig down the West Coast on Friday. It will likely push a cold front through our area that will be accompanied by rain. An even wetter system will follow on Sunday. Consecutively cooler air masses will mean for temperatures below normal by Friday into early next week.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
A large, long period northwest swell will result in hazardous conditions in the surf zone through Monday afternoon. Swell heights are then expected to build through Sunday with breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet, locally higher at favored breakpoints, expected along west to northwest facing beaches. As a result, a High Surf Advisory is in effect through Monday afternoon for west and northwest facing beaches while a Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the northern Monterey Bay including Santa Cruz. With warm temperatures present over a holiday weekend, continuous vigilance is advised. Never turn your back to the ocean.
Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. People are strongly urged to remain well back from the ocean as these types of events often result in an increase in cold water rescues and the loss of life.
**High Surf Advisory**
…for the immediate coast of Monterey County until 3PM Monday
-Large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet, locally higher at favored breakpoints, can be expected along west to northwest facing beaches.
Unseasonably warm temperatures this holiday weekend will likely attract more people to the coast. Individuals should be reminded that our coastline and the cold Pacific waters remain dangerous as these larger than normal waves impact the coast. Extreme caution is advised when visiting area beaches.
Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing over large rocks and jetties. Use extra caution near the surf zone as these large waves will be capable of sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will be dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking waves.
*Beach Hazards*
…for the immediate coast on the north side of Monterey Bay until Monday afternoon.
-Breaking waves 12 to 15 feet possible in favored break points.
While these waves are not as large as our previous events in the most recent days, unseasonable warm temperatures this holiday weekend will likely attract more people to the coast. Individuals should be reminded that our coastline and the cold Pacific waters remain dangerous as these larger than normal waves impact the coast. Extreme caution is advised when visiting area beaches.
A Beach Hazard Statement for sneaker waves means that conditions are present to support a heightened risk of unsuspecting beach goers being swept into the sea by a wave. People walking along the beach should never turn their back to the sea.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. Rock jetties can be deadly in such conditions, stay off the rocks.
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few high clouds passing through. Gusty northerly winds at times in the northern mountains which may bring mild air down into the valleys on occasion. Otherwise, cool elsewhere. Expect lows in the 40s on the coast with a few spots remaining in the low 50s. Inland lows will vary from the 30s in the southern valleys, to 40s in the north. Temperatures will likely remain in the 50s up in the hills.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
High winds have the potential to topple power lines and trees along with creating hazardous driving conditions. Plan accordingly and secure light property outdoors including temporary outdoor structures. Have cell phones charged and flashlights handy if power outages occur.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds.
**Wind Advisory**
From 10PM Sunday until 4PM Monday, then…
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
From 4PM Monday until 7AM Tuesday…
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains and Northern Diablo Range
For the High Wind Warning, north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph...locally up to 70 mph highest peaks. For the Wind Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected. Downsloping effects will produce gusty conditions on the lee side of mountains and foothills.
**Wind Advisory**
for the lower elevations of Santa Cruz County and the Santa Clara Valley from 10PM Sunday through 6PM Tuesday
Offshore wind event will produce periods of sustained winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph. Strongest gusts are expected on the lee side of mountains as downsloping effects will produce gusty conditions.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
for the Santa Lucia Range & Los Padres National Forest in Monterey County from 4PM Monday until 7AM Tuesday
North winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. Local gusts up to 70 mph over the highest peaks. Downsloping effects will produce gusty conditions on the lee side of mountains and foothills.
**Wind Advisory**
for the San Benito County, and the Gabilan Range & Cholame Hills, coastal cities, and northern Salinas Valley in Monterey County from 4PM Monday until 6PM Tuesday
North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Fire Weather Watch*
… for the higher terrain of Monterey & San Benito Counties from 6PM Monday until 1PM Tuesday
Off-season offshore wind event Monday evening into Tuesday. Northeast winds will strengthen after sunset across the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia Range and Southern Gabilan Range then quickly mix down to the lower elevations. Air mass is expected to dry out as winds pick up and become more widespread. The strongest winds are expected just before daybreak on Tuesday with winds gusting up to 45 mph and localized gusts over 50 mph at some of the highest peaks. Winds will then gradually decrease but will remain gusty through the rest of the Tuesday morning and the early part of the afternoon.
Winds will increase Monday evening starting around sunset and carry into the overnight hours between Monday and Tuesday. The strongest winds will occur right before daybreak Tuesday and begin to gradually weaken through the rest of the morning and ease off by early afternoon.
North to Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with frequent gusts up to 45 mph. Local gusts over 50 mph for some of the higher peaks along the Santa Lucia Mountains and the Mountains of San Benito County.
Humidity will be low to moderate Monday night and through daybreak from 15-30% with some locations along the Santa Lucia Range dropping into the lower teens. After sunrise expect more widespread low teens across Southern Monterey County and 20-25% across the Mountains of San Benito County.
Any new starts aligned with wind will likely show moderate to rapid growth. Strong winds could cause power outages as well as downed trees and limbs.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.
*Gale Watch*
… for all coastal waters out to 10nm from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
Strong winds can cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and seas.
Monday: Mostly sunny with just a few high clouds passing through. Light offshore winds for most areas, but gusty offshore winds up in the hills, especially in the north. Very warm, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with just a few high clouds in the south. The gustiest winds will transition to the mountains south of Monterey Bay. Cooler, but still warm for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Extended: Low temperatures will be much cooler starting Wednesday with patchy frost returning to inland valleys. Expect mostly sunny skies Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will fall both days, especially on the coast as flow switches back on shore. Some low cloudcover may even make a return by Thursday. A cold front will bring mostly light rain to the region Friday. Another wet system will follow by Sunday. Highs will drop into the 50s starting Friday and will stay that way into early next week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 36ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 25th – 31st calls for the likelihood BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Moderate La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought most of our viewing area. A small slice of southeastern Santa Clara and northeastern San Benito Counties are considered to be in Severe Drought.
