High Surf & Offshore Winds
Air Quality Report (As of 12:00pm)
Good to moderate for all reporting areas.
Weather Story: High pressure will continue to block storms to the north into next week. Its associated dome of warm, dry air will keep highs well above normal for this time of year through the holiday weekend. It will begin to move west next week. First, allowing for cooler air masses to invade from the north. Gusty offshore flow is likely during this transition late Sunday through Tuesday which may actually warm coastal areas even though the overall air mass is cooling. Much cooler weather expected by the end of the week and eventually, somewhere around the 22nd-25th, rain chances may return.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
A large, long period northwest swell arrives on Sunday morning and will result in hazardous conditions in the surf zone through Monday afternoon. Forerunners are expected to arrive at 3 to 7 feet with a period of 22 to 24 seconds, increasing the risk of sneaker waves. Swell heights are then expected to build through Sunday with breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet, locally higher at favored breakpoints, expected along west to northwest facing beaches. As a result, a High Surf Advisory is in effect through Monday afternoon for west and northwest facing beaches while a Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the northern Monterey Bay including Santa Cruz. With warm temperatures present over a holiday weekend, continuous vigilance is advised. Never turn your back to the ocean.
Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. People are strongly urged to remain well back from the ocean as these types of events often result in an increase in cold water rescues and the loss of life.
**High Surf Advisory**
…for the immediate coast of Monterey County until 3PM Monday
-Large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet, locally higher at favored breakpoints, can be expected along west to northwest facing beaches.
Unseasonably warm temperatures this holiday weekend will likely attract more people to the coast. Individuals should be reminded that our coastline and the cold Pacific waters remain dangerous as these larger than normal waves impact the coast. Extreme caution is advised when visiting area beaches.
Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing over large rocks and jetties. Use extra caution near the surf zone as these large waves will be capable of sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will be dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking waves.
*Beach Hazards*
…for the immediate coast on the north side of Monterey Bay until Monday afternoon.
-Breaking waves 12 to 15 feet possible in favored break points.
While these waves are not as large as our previous events in the most recent days, unseasonable warm temperatures this holiday weekend will likely attract more people to the coast. Individuals should be reminded that our coastline and the cold Pacific waters remain dangerous as these larger than normal waves impact the coast. Extreme caution is advised when visiting area beaches.
A Beach Hazard Statement for sneaker waves means that conditions are present to support a heightened risk of unsuspecting beach goers being swept into the sea by a wave. People walking along the beach should never turn their back to the sea.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. Rock jetties can be deadly in such conditions, stay off the rocks.
Sunday: Sunny with light offshore flow. A weak sea breeze will kick in on the coast late in the afternoon. Seasonably warm, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to around 80ºF on the coast and 70s to low 80s inland. Winds pick up over the hills late.
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few high clouds passing through. Gusty northerly winds at times in the northern mountains which may bring mild air down into the valleys on occasion. Otherwise, cool elsewhere. Expect lows in the 40s on the coast with a few spots remaining in the low 50s. Inland lows will vary from the 30s in the southern valleys, to 40s in the north. Temperatures will likely remain in the 50s to around 60ºF up in the hills.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
**Wind Advisory**
… for Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties from 10PM Sunday until 6PM Tuesday
Offshore wind event will produce periods of sustained winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph. Strongest gusts are expected on the lee side of mountains as downsloping effects will produce gusty conditions. For the Diablo Range, the event will produce sustained winds of 20-35 mph possible with gusts 40 to 60 mph, locally stronger over peaks and along leeward slopes.
…for Monterey & San Benito Counties, excluding the southern Monterey County valleys from 4PM Monday until 6PM Tuesday
Offshore wind event will produce winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph expected. Locally higher gusts are possible over highest peaks and on the lee side of mountains as downsloping effects will produce gusty conditions.
High winds have the potential to topple power lines and trees along with creating hazardous driving conditions. Be sure to plan accordingly if you plan to travel in these areas and to secure light property outdoors including temporary outdoor structures. Have cell phones charged and flashlights handy if power outages occur.
Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds.
***GALE WARNING***
… for coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos out to 10 nm from 9AM Monday until 9PM Monday
For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 12 to 16 feet at 18 seconds expected.
Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
*Fire Weather Watch*
… for the higher terrain of Monterey & San Benito Counties from 6PM Monday until 1PM Tuesday
Off-season offshore wind event Monday evening into Tuesday. Northeast winds will strengthen after sunset across the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia Range and Southern Gabilan Range then quickly mix down to the lower elevations. Air mass is expected to dry out as winds pick up and become more widespread. The strongest winds are expected just before daybreak on Tuesday with winds gusting up to 45 mph and localized gusts over 50 mph at some of the highest peaks. Winds will then gradually decrease but will remain gusty through the rest of the Tuesday morning and the early part of the afternoon.
Winds will increase Monday evening starting around sunset and carry into the overnight hours between Monday and Tuesday. The strongest winds will occur right before daybreak Tuesday and begin to gradually weaken through the rest of the morning and ease off by early afternoon.
North to Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with frequent gusts up to 45 mph. Local gusts over 50 mph for some of the higher peaks along the Santa Lucia Mountains and the Mountains of San Benito County.
Humidity will be low to moderate Monday night and through daybreak from 15-30% with some locations along the Santa Lucia Range dropping into the lower teens. After sunrise expect more widespread low teens across Southern Monterey County and 20-25% across the Mountains of San Benito County.
Any new starts aligned with wind will likely show moderate to rapid growth. Strong winds could cause power outages as well as downed trees and limbs.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.
Extended: Offshore winds will continue through early Tuesday and could get gusty at times. Temperatures will initially warm back up through Monday, then cool down quite a bit by mid-week. Rain chances will likely hold off until at least the 23rd, but it may actually be a few more days after that before we see rain.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 36ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 22nd – 28th calls for the likelihood BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Moderate La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought most of our viewing area. A small slice of southeastern Santa Clara and northeastern San Benito Counties are considered to be in Severe Drought.
