State projections show potential increase in Central Coast COVID-19 deaths

(KION) Gov. Gavin Newsom released a new way to track current COVID-19 data and models of future scenarios, the California COVID Assessment Tool. It uses modeling groups from around the country to make what the Governor calls a "model of models" that tracks the spread, short-term forecasts of trends and potential scenarios over the course of the disease.

“While these models and forecasts make different assumptions, all of them show that individual actions can dramatically change the trajectory of the virus. Our state’s ability to slow the spread of the virus and keep more people from getting sick depends on Californians acting responsibly and following public health guidelines," Newsom said.

Short-Term Death Forecasts

Short term forecasts on the site use recent case trends, hospitalizations and deaths to create models predicting trends in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

In Monterey County, there are currently 12 reported COVID-19 deaths, but the forecasts predict there will be 231 by July 26.

In Santa Cruz County, there are currently 3 reported COVID-19 deaths, but the forecasts predict there will be 31 by July 26.

In San Benito County, there are currently two reported COVID-19 deaths, but the forecasts predict there will be 50 by July 26.

Short-Term Hospitalization Forecasts

Short-term hospitalization forecasts predict the number of COVID-19 patients who will be hospitalized by the end of July and compares them with the number of beds available.

In Monterey County, there were 21 people hospitalized for COVID-19 out of 678 total beds available, and forecasts predict 25 people will be hospitalized on July 25.

In Santa Cruz County, there were 6 people hospitalized for COVID-19 out of 356 total beds available, and forecasts predict 4 people will be hospitalized on July 25.

In San Benito County, nobody was hospitalized for COVID-19, and there were 25 beds available. Forecasts predict 8 people will be hospitalized on July 25.

Long-term cumulative deaths

According to the California Department of Public Health, long-term scenarios predict the effect of non-medical interventions through the end of September. Cumulative deaths shows the effects of those interventions. CAN: Delay/Distancing shows the effects of three months of voluntary Shelter in Place for high-risk groups, bans on events with more than 50 people, practicing social distancing and other measures. CAN: Shelter in Place shows the effects of three months of community-wide home quarantine, shutdown of non-essential businesses and other measures.

In Monterey County, it is estimated that by the end of September with Delay/Distancing, there would be 1,134 deaths. With Shelter in Place, there would be 237.

In Santa Cruz County, it is estimated that by the end of September with Delay/Distancing, there would be 616 deaths. With Shelter in Place, there would be 39.

In San Benito County, it is estimated that by the end of September with Delay/Distancing, there would be 172 deaths. With Shelter in Place, there would be 21.

See more predictions and current data from statewide and county-specific forecasts here.