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Weather Team

Fire Season Continues

Air Quality Report (As of 6:30AM)
All reporting stations are good.

High pressure will strengthen over the next few days, supporting a dome of unseasonably warm air across the region. Because of its position, flow will be northerly over our area. This offshore northerly flow will bring warmth to the coast, prevent the marine layer from developing, and push dry air over our ridgetops increasing fire danger. The offshore winds will die down by the end of the week and an area of low pressure will sneak north from the south, cooling us through the weekend. An increase in clouds is also likely.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer yet. Expect coastal highs in the mid-70s to upper 80s and mid-80s to mid-90s inland. A few low clouds possible along the outer Monterey Coast late. Breezy at times over the ridgetops and the sea breeze will also pick up for near-coastal valleys in the afternoon and early evening. A bit hazy.

… from the National Weather Service in Monterey:
Critical fire weather conditions are possible mid to late this week across the higher elevations of the north and east bay as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains. A fire weather watch has been issued due to increasing offshore winds and low humidity. Winds will begin to increase early Wednesday morning… Gusty winds are then expected to become more widespread Wednesday evening and peak in the overnight hours into Thursday morning before subsiding in the afternoon. Another burst of offshore winds is expected again Thursday night, but winds are not anticipated to be as strong as Wednesday night. Additionally, daytime relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the teens by Wednesday with poor overnight recovery.  Winds are anticipated to subside over all areas by Friday afternoon.

*Fire Weather Watch*
… in effect from late Tuesday night through Friday morning for the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County and the Santa Cruz Mountains.

WIND: North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Higher peaks and ridges can expect gusts of 45 to 50mph. Strongest winds are anticipated Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning.

HUMIDITY: Daytime humidity values will drop as low as 10 to 20 percent with little to no nighttime recoveries.

Any fires that start will likely spread rapidly due to combination of dry fuels, breezy northerly winds, and low humidity.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a few thin, high clouds possible. A few low clouds may also be possible, but chances are low. Expect coastal lows in the mid to upper 50s with 40s to low 50s inland.

 Wednesday: Dry northerly winds continue over the hills throughout the day and will strengthen in the evening. Skies across the region will remain clear and temperatures warm for this time of year. Expect highs in the 70s-80s on the coast and widespread 90s inland.

Extended: Offshore winds will weaken starting Thursday, but the strength of the ridge will reach its maximum over the area Thursday & Friday—which is when we can expect the hottest temperatures for most cities. In fact, highs could be as much as 20ºF above normal for this time of year. A sub-tropical low will slowly drift in from the south through the weekend which will lead to a gradual cool-down through the weekend. However, it still looks pretty nice! Note: If any fires develop to our north, we’ll probably see some smoke in our area late in the week.

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This week's normal temperatures:

--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 70ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 80ºF

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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 20th – 26th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation. 
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory

-Area drought status: 
Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties, Abnormally dry on the east shore of the bay into San Benito County. No drought classification for much of Monterey County outside of the Gabilan Range.

Local Forecast / Weather / Weather Authority

Zach McIntyre

Zach McIntyre is the morning meteorologist at KION News Channel 5/46.

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